Gehlot's Fate Hangs In Balance As 8 Out of 9 Exit Polls Point To BJP Victory In Rajasthan

Exit polls suggest a likely change in power dynamics in Rajasthan, indicating the BJP's probable victory over the Congress. The state, known for voting out the ruling party every election for the last three decades, saw polls on November 25, with results slated for Sunday.

Ashok Gehlot of the Congress faces a challenging path towards a fourth term as Chief Minister, as eight out of nine exit polls project a comfortable or significant BJP victory.

Forecasts favoring Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party stand out, with Republic TV-Matrize predicting a sizable 115-130 seats for the BJP, while Times Now-ETG estimates a range of 108-128 seats. Conversely, none of these polls give the Congress more than 75 seats, with Times Now offering a lower range of 56.

Rajasthan's Assembly comprises 200 seats, with polling conducted for 199 due to the unfortunate passing of the Congress' Gurmeet Koonar, Karanpur's MLA, at Delhi's AIIMS. However, the majority threshold remains at 101 seats.

Other polls, including Jan Ki Baat, P-Marq, and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, all project the BJP securing a minimum of 100 seats, with the first two foreseeing an upper margin exceeding 120 seats.

ABP News-C Voter and Dainik Bhaskar also align with predictions favoring the BJP. ABP News anticipates the BJP securing 94 to 114 seats against the Congress' 71-91, while Dainik Bhaskar estimates 98 to 105 seats for the BJP, limiting the Congress to a maximum of 95 seats.

India Today-My Axis and India TV-CNX present somewhat hopeful outcomes for the Congress, yet India Today still grants the BJP an upper limit of 100 seats and 86-106 for the ruling party. The Congress receives an estimated 94-104 seats, closely trailing the BJP at 80-90. Remarkably, these polls, along with TV9 Bharatvarsh, are the sole ones to anticipate over 100 seats for the Congress.

In 2018, the Congress gained momentum from the 'revolving door' policy, securing 100 seats compared to the BJP's 73, despite nearly identical vote shares. The BJP's significant seat loss highlighted the impact of anti-incumbency; it had secured 163 seats and 45 percent of the votes in 2013. The BJP's loss of 90 seats translated into substantial gains for the Congress.

Although the Congress fell short of a majority on its own, it received support from Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, which secured six seats, facilitating Ashok Gehlot's swearing-in as Chief Minister.