OI Exclusive | From Hindutva To Hubris: Yogendra Yadav's Take On BJP's Downfall

Yogendra Yadav, a renowned Indian activist, psephologist, and politician, sheds light on the factors behind his eerily accurate predictions for the Lok Sabha polls 2024. Yadav revealed that he was working to puncture a false narrative that had been created in the country, and that his predictions were merely a stroke of luck.

In an exclusive interview with OneIndia, Yadav said,''My predictions are just a stroke of chance. But it was very obvious. But no one was speaking about it.'He further said, 'I had predicted UP will see a massive political storm, but no one checked it.''

When asked about how exit polls went wrong, Yadav said that they can go wrong and don't matter. He added that exit polls only impact the share market and betting market.

Yadav also criticised the media for being complicit with the BJP. He alleged that the media had started chanting the party's slogans, acting as de facto spokespersons for the government. He also pointed out that the media was heavily managed by the government, making it difficult for opposition voices to be heard. "The media was managed by the government, so there was no apparent media threat," he said.

When asked where the BJP went wrong, Yadav said that this is what happens with dictators. "They take people for a ride, thinking they can sell anything to the public," he said. This is a mix of conceit and hubris. The government managed the media as well, so there was no apparent media threat. Everything was manageable, and that's what the BJP thought.

Regarding whether these numbers will change the way PM Modi and Shah operate, Yadav said that it doesn't seem so far. Their stand remains the same as if they had gotten a clear majority. The BJP has become too arrogant.

Yadav also spoke about the performance of the India Alliance. He said that the context of the elections is supreme. The media was against the India Alliance and was with the NDA. The government was not held accountable, and the ruling party had infinitely more money than the opposition. Government bodies were acting as "BJP karyakarta." Yadav further said Opposition 235 is equal to 335.

When asked about the performance of India Alliance, Yadav said that it could have done a few things differently. He suggested that a joint manifesto or a 5-point charter should have been released as a joint alliance. Seat sharing could have been done earlier, and the synergy of the opposition in Uttar Pradesh could have been achieved earlier.

Regarding Nitish Kumar's role in the India Alliance, Yadav said that there must have been mistakes from both sides. However, the switch has dented Nitish Kumar's image, earning him the nickname "Paltu Ram". To run a coalition, you need to accommodate all parties, and this is a lesson to be learned.

On the Congress party's evolution since 2014 and 2019, Yadav highlighted two key points. Firstly, the Bharat Jodo Yatra, which was undertaken by Rahul Gandhi at a time when Hindutva was dominating the national discourse, helped connect with the masses, including women and youth. Secondly, Mallikarjun Kharge brought planning and discipline within the Congress party, which helped shape the party's direction.

When asked about changes before June 8, when the PM is expected to take oath, Yadav said that there will be hectic parleys between parties. He noted that the government runs on faith and belief, but people are losing faith in the ruling dispensation.

Yadav predicted that lots of changes will come in governance from now on. He expects the opposition to be stronger, parliament to see real debates with strong opposition, media to work honestly, judiciary to be more proactive and sincere, and civil society to get a stronger voice. This will ensure a strong democracy.

On whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi's stature will change, Yadav said that if there was Nehru, with whom Modi compares himself, he would have stepped down after such a result. However, Modi won't resign on moral grounds, so this moral-less governance will see the government come crashing down.

It must be noted that Yogendra Yadav had predicted that while BJP is likely to secure victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it may not be a decisive success like the last two general elections.

For the unversed, what did Yogendra Yadav predict for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls?

Yogendra Yadav had predicted a stronger influence from the Opposition alliance INDIA bloc led by Congress in the 2024 general elections. These were Yadav's predictions:

BJP: 240-260 seats
NDA: 35-45 seats
Congress: 85 to 100 seats
INDIA bloc: 120 to 135 seats

Yadav had said that while the BJP would likely secure a victory, achieving their ambitious seat targets, particularly the "400 seats" claim, would be improbable. He said that the BJP will find it difficult to exceed 260 seats and almost impossible to reach 300 seats.