Exit Polls Predict Smooth Sail For INDIA Bloc In Haryana, J&K; BJP Loses Sheen

The Congress party is projected to gain a significant advantage in Haryana, and its alliance with the National Conference (NC) - both part of the INDIA bloc - could have a slight edge in Jammu & Kashmir, according to several exit polls released on Saturday.

In Haryana, which went to the polls on Saturday, nearly all major exit polls indicated that Congress might return to power after a decade, securing a comfortable majority and defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Photo Credit: PTI

If this trend holds, it would mean that the Congress has maintained the momentum from its performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where it blocked a BJP sweep in the state for the first time since 2014, winning five of the 10 parliamentary seats.

The exit polls for Jammu & Kashmir, a Union territory that held its first assembly elections in a decade and its first since the revocation of its special status in August 2019, were more mixed.

Most polls predicted that the NC-Congress alliance could emerge ahead in one of the most fragmented elections the region has seen in a generation, reported Hindustan Times.

BJP was expected to perform well in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, which has 43 seats in the 90-member assembly after the controversial 2022 delimitation.

Meanwhile, the NC-Congress alliance was predicted to win in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, which holds 47 seats.

These assembly elections are the first since the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year, and their outcome will impact national politics while setting the stage for crucial state elections later this year in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The votes will be counted on October 8.

However, exit polls are not always accurate, especially in states with diverse populations, castes, and communities. Pollsters have often missed the mark in past elections, including the recent Lok Sabha polls.

Former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah expressed skepticism, stating, "I'm amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I'm ignoring all the noise... because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass."

Overall, exit polls suggested that the results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir might boost the Opposition's Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), aligning with the trends seen in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. The data indicated that local issues, rather than national ones, dominated the elections.

Congress MP Deepinder Hooda commented, "The BJP had no achievements on their side and did nothing good for the state. The mandate is very clear and very decisive for the Congress." On the other hand, BJP leader Anil Vij dismissed the predictions, asserting, "The BJP will surely win in Haryana and form the government again."

In Haryana, most exit polls predicted that the Congress would comfortably secure a majority in what was a largely bipolar contest, pushing the BJP into a weaker position.

Axis MyIndia predicted the Congress could win 53-65 seats, securing votes across various communities and age groups, while Dainik Bhaskar suggested a lower range of 44-54 seats.

Smaller alliances, such as the Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party and the Jannayak Janata Party-Azad Samaj Party, were predicted to perform poorly, while the BJP was seen as retaining its core voter base but losing ground to Congress, which appeared to be gaining support across caste lines.

The election was shaped by a combination of issues, including anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP, dissatisfaction with the Agnipath armed services recruitment scheme, protests by top wrestlers over sexual harassment, and the discontent of farmers.

In the 2019 Haryana elections, Congress won 31 out of 90 seats, while the BJP secured 40, falling short of the majority mark of 46.

The BJP formed the government in alliance with the JJP, but the coalition collapsed earlier this year when Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced as chief minister by Nayab Singh Saini.

In Jammu & Kashmir, the exit polls presented a murkier picture. Pollsters suggested that the BJP might emerge as the largest party in Jammu, while the NC-Congress alliance could dominate in Kashmir.

Republic-PMarq projected that the NC-Congress alliance could win 55-62 seats, securing a majority on its own. At the lower end, Gulistan News predicted the alliance would win 31-36 seats.

This election, one of the most fragmented in J&K's history, saw participation from various parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led by former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, the People's Conference led by Sajjad Gani Lone, and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party.

However, most exit polls indicated that the main contest was between the BJP and the NC-Congress alliance.

In 2014, the PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats and formed a coalition government with the BJP, which had 25 seats. The alliance fell apart in 2018, leading to the imposition of Governor's Rule.

In August 2019, the Indian government revoked Article 370, ending J&K's special status and bifurcating the region.

These elections are seen as a crucial step towards restoring J&K's statehood, with campaigns dominated by issues such as Article 370, the region's autonomy, governance, and anti-incumbency sentiment.