Exit Poll Results 2024: Who Will Be More Accurate—Axis My India, Matrize, CNX, or Today’s Chanakya?

Published: Saturday, June 1, 2024, 13:11 [IST]

The 7th and final phase of Lok Sabha elections will conclude on June 1, marking the end of the extensive poll season in the world's largest democracy. As soon as the polling wraps up, attention will turn to the exit poll predictions released by various political research agencies.

Exit polls are post-election surveys that predict outcomes based on voter feedback collected after they have cast their votes. These polls aim to capture public sentiment and electoral trends ahead of the official results.

Exit Poll Results 2024 Who Will Be More Accurate Axis My India Matrize CNX or Today s Chanakya

These predictions offer valuable insights into the potential outcomes before the actual results are announced, which this year will be on June 4.

As anticipation mounts and all eyes focus on the exit polls, let's examine the accuracy of past predictions.

Exit Polls in 2019

India Today-Axis My India: Predicted NDA would win 339 to 365 seats and UPA 77 to 108.
News24-Today's Chanakya: Forecasted NDA would win about 350 seats (±14) and UPA 95 (±9).
News18-IPSOS: Predicted 336 seats for NDA, 82 for UPA, and 124 for other parties.
Times Now-VMR: Estimated NDA to win around 306 seats and UPA 132 (±3).
India TV-CNX: Estimated 300 seats (±10) for NDA and 120 seats (±5) for UPA.
CVoter: Predicted 287 for NDA, 128 for UPA, and the rest for other parties.

India Today-Axis My India and Today's Chanakya were the most accurate, predicting over 350 seats for NDA and just 93-95 for UPA. Times Now-VMR, however, underestimated NDA's success, predicting only around 306 seats for NDA and nearly 130 for UPA.

Actual Results in 2019

After votes were counted, the NDA won 353 seats in the Lok Sabha, while UPA secured only 91. The BJP won 303 seats, and Congress got 52. While exit polls correctly predicted NDA would surpass 300 seats, most underestimated the actual number of seats it won.

Exit Polls in 2014

In 2014, most exit polls accurately gauged the public mood, giving the BJP-led NDA an edge over the Congress-led UPA. The BJP won an absolute majority with 282 seats. In contrast, 2009 saw predictions fall short for UPA, which won 262 seats against expectations. In 2004, all exit polls inaccurately predicted an NDA win, but UPA emerged victorious.

CNN-IBN - CSDS-Lokniti: NDA - 276, UPA - 97, Others - 148
India Today - Axis My India: NDA - 272, UPA - 115, Others - 156
News 24 - Today's Chanakya: NDA - 340, UPA - 70, Others - 133
Times Now - ORG: NDA - 249, UPA - 148, Others - 146
ABP News - Nielsen: NDA - 274, UPA - 97, Others - 165
NDTV - Hansa Research: NDA - 279, UPA - 103, Others - 161