Did Exit Polls Predict Maharashtra, Jharkhand 2019 Results Correctly? Here’s a Recap

Voting for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections concludes today, with results set to be announced on November 23. As the polls close, a slew of agencies and news channels are preparing to release exit poll predictions shortly after voting ends in both states. Here's a look back at how accurate exit polls were during the 2019 assembly elections.

Exit Poll Performance in Jharkhand 2019

The Jharkhand assembly election in 2019 was held between November 30 and December 20. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by Congress and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), emerged victorious. The JMM, under Hemant Soren's leadership, won 30 seats, the BJP secured 25, and Congress took 16.

Exit poll predictions that year presented varied results:

• India Today-Axis My India predicted 43 seats for the UPA and 27 for the BJP.
• ABP-Voter forecasted a hung assembly with 35 seats for the UPA and 32 for the BJP.
• Times Now anticipated a decisive UPA victory with 44 seats, leaving BJP with 28.

Exit Poll Accuracy in Maharashtra 2019

In the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP won 105 seats, Shiv Sena secured 56, the NCP claimed 54, and Congress bagged 44.

Exit polls presented mixed predictions:

• India Today-Axis My India foresaw 166-194 seats for the NDA (BJP and Shiv Sena) and 72-90 for the UPA (Congress and NCP).
• News18-IPSOS predicted a landslide with 243 seats for the NDA and only 41 for the UPA.
• Republic-Jan Ki Baat estimated 216-230 seats for the NDA and 52-59 for the UPA.
• Times Now projected 230 seats for the NDA and 48 for the UPA.
• ABP News-C Voter predicted 204 seats for the NDA and 69 for the UPA.

Post the Haryana elections, where many exit polls inaccurately predicted a Congress victory, questions arose about the reliability of such forecasts. Addressing this, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar emphasized the need for introspection among media outlets, particularly in electronic media, about the expectations they set through exit polls.
Kumar highlighted the distortion created by premature trends, calling for greater accountability from media organizations and regulatory bodies like the National Broadcasters Association (NBSA).

He clarified that while the Election Commission does not govern exit polls under the law, it monitors media conduct during elections. Kumar criticized channels displaying results as early as 8:05 am when official counting begins only at 8:30 am, with preliminary results unlikely before 9:05 am. He urged transparency and adherence to procedural norms during vote counting to avoid misleading trends.

As exit poll results for Maharashtra and Jharkhand are eagerly awaited, the focus remains on their accuracy and the broader implications for public trust in such projections.