Delhi Elections 2025 Opinion Poll: Who Will Get Support From Women And Dalit Voters?

The political landscape in Delhi is poised for change as the city gears up for elections on February 5. The results, which will be announced on February 8, are eagerly awaited. With the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) currently in power, questions arise about whether they will maintain their hold or if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or Congress will take over.

Recent surveys have provided insights into potential outcomes. According to a C-Voter survey, the AAP appears to have a strong lead with over 51% of the votes. However, 41% of respondents expressed a desire for a change in government. "About half of the nearly 3,200 people C-Voter surveyed said they did not want to change the government," Reuters reported.

Women Voters' Influence

Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of C-Voter, highlighted the AAP's advantage among women voters. In an interview with News Tak, he noted that 80 out of 100 women who supported AAP in the 2020 assembly polls might continue their support this time. Meanwhile, 65 out of 100 women who backed BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election remain loyal to BJP, though around 25 are shifting towards AAP.

Deshmukh also mentioned that a significant portion of women who voted for Congress previously are now leaning towards AAP. "The AAP has a good track record on delivering freebies in Delhi," Deshmukh was quoted by Reuters as saying.

Dalit Voters' Preferences

The National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi Organisations (NACDAOR) conducted another survey focusing on Dalit voters. This survey included 6,256 participants across Delhi, with 2,574 being women. It revealed that Dalits favour AAP in 35 seats, followed by BJP in 28 and Congress in seven seats.

The NACDAOR survey indicated that 44% of Dalits plan to vote for AAP on February 5, while BJP and Congress received support from 32% and 21%, respectively. Historically, Dalits have leaned towards the INDIA bloc over the BJP-led NDA. At the national level, both AAP and Congress belong to this bloc but contest state elections separately.

Satta Bazar Predictions

The Phalodi Satta Bazar initially predicted an AAP victory surpassing the majority mark of 36 seats in Delhi's 70-member Assembly. However, recent revisions suggest a slight increase in support for AAP with projections between 39 and 41 seats. Meanwhile, BJP is expected to secure between 29 and 31 seats—falling short of the majority mark by five to six seats.

No predictions were made for Congress by Phalodi Satta Bazar at this time.

Historical Context

In previous elections, Arvind Kejriwal's AAP achieved remarkable victories by winning 67 seats in 2015 and securing another triumph with 62 seats in the subsequent polls held in 2020. The party now aims for its third consecutive term as it seeks continued governance over Delhi.

The upcoming election results will determine if AAP retains control or if there will be a shift towards BJP or Congress leadership within India's capital city.