Delhi Assembly Polls 2025: A Litmus Test for BJP

Only a couple of days are left to Delhi Assembly Election 2025, and this time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming to end its 25-year drought by winning the capital. There are 70 assembly seats and to form government, a party needs at least 36 seats.

Despite holding all 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, BJP lost to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in 2015 and 2020. But this time, BJP has a real chance to claim power as the ruling AAP is facing 10 years of anti-incumbency, and its top leadership: Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Satyendra Jain, and Sanjay Singh are facing charges in the Liquor Policy Case.

Challenges and Strengths Shaping BJP's 2025 election campaign:

Challenges for the BJP

• Effective Welfare Schemes:
AAP's social policies aka freebies including free electricity, water, public transport, and healthcare have touched the last man of the line and made a strong vote bank amoung people below the poverty line.

• Kejriwal Popularity:

Former Delhi CM and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has the ability to connect with the urban middle and lower-middle classes. Over the years, he has solidified his image in the eyes of people, compared to other party leaders.

• The BJP lacks local leadership, who can take Arvind Kejriwal head-on.

• The party is totally banking on PM Modi's face in this election and trying to make it an election based on national issues rather than hyper-local governance problems.

• Delhi's urban voters tend to prioritize local governance over broader national narratives.
• The BJP's focus on nationalism and larger policy themes often fails to resonate with the Capital's electorate.

• BJP has historically struggled in 12 reserved and eight minority-dominated constituencies.
• The party failed to win even one of these seats in the 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections.

BJP's Strengths

1. PM Modi's Popularity and Sangh Support

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains BJP's strongest star campaigner who knows how to woo people and turn the tables around. BJP's strength gets doubled when RSS backs it, as Sangh Parivar has a strong cadre network on the ground.

2. Recent Electoral Victories

• Recent wins in Haryana and Maharashtra have reinvigorated BJP's cadre in Delhi.

3. Anti-Incumbency and Corruption Allegations

• Trying to highlight low development in the last 10 years, the BJP is running a "Parivartan" (Change) campaign, highlighting 10 years of anti-incumbency against AAP.

• The liquor policy allegations and controversies will also help BJP as many AAP supporters are now looking for better options and may vote for some other party.

BJP's Track Record: A History of Missed Opportunities
Assembly Election Performance (1998-2020):

Key Points:

• BJP aiming to bag victory in the national capital since 1998. Its last CM Sushma Swaraj was replaced by Congress' Sheila Dixit and then Arvind Kejriwal of AAP.
• BJP has lost six consecutive Delhi Assembly elections since 1998.
• Despite losing B6 elections, BJP managed to safeguard over 30% vote share, indicating a steady base.

The Road Ahead for BJP

The Delhi Assembly elections 2025 will be a litmus test for the BJP. The party has to focus more on local issues while leveraging its national appeal in this election.

The lack of a strong local leader, coupled with AAP's robust welfare policies, presents significant challenges.

BJP leaders are trying their best to encash the opportunity of 10 years of anti-incumbency and corruption charges against AAP.