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Global energy markets experienced a downturn on Tuesday amid uncertainty over the second round of talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.

Also, the news of US Navy intercepting and seizing an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel injected fresh volatility into a market already on edge over a looming ceasefire deadline.

While the primary benchmarks saw modest declines, more significant volatility was observed in regional indexes. The DME Oman fell by over 10%, and the Urals benchmark dropped by 10.45%, suggesting a broader recalibration of risk premiums across different crude grades.

High-Stakes Diplomacy in Islamabad

As the market reacts to the naval escalation, focus shifts to a potential diplomatic breakthrough. US Vice-President JD Vance is expected to lead a high-level delegation to Islamabad on Tuesday, provided Tehran agrees to resume negotiations.

The delegation includes:

Steve Witkoff: Special Envoy to the President.

Jared Kushner: Senior advisor and son-in-law to President Trump.

The mission is timed to coincide with the expiration of a critical ceasefire. However, the path to peace remains fraught with historical tension.

Despite the proposed talks, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed profound skepticism regarding Washington's intentions. Citing a "deep historical mistrust," Pezeshkian accused US officials of sending "unconstructive and contradictory signals" designed to force a surrender.

"Iranians do not submit to force," Pezeshkian stated, highlighting the precarious nature of the upcoming summit.

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official suggested to Reuters that Tehran is "positively reviewing" the invitation. Should the talks proceed, the Iranian delegation is expected to be led by Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, signaling that both nations are, at the very least, keeping the door to de-escalation slightly ajar.