Covid-19 third wave to hit children, may peak in Oct: MHA panel to PMO

New Delhi, Aug 23: A possible third wave of Covid-19 may hit its peak in October this year, warned a committee of experts constituted under the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), set up on the directions of the Home Ministry.

The committee sought better medical preparedness for children who might be at greater risk, when third wave hits the country.

According to an exclusive report by Times of India, the committee noted that "paediatric facilities - doctors, staff, equipment like ventilators, ambulances, etc. are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of children become infected". The report has been submitted to the PMO.

The experts have also stressed for vaccination among children with co-morbidities.

There is no sufficient data to back widespread fears that children will be hit more severely in the
anticipated third wave of the pandemic. However, as the virus continues to evolve, this is going to
be a major challenge for children as there is no approved vaccine for children in India yet. Children
with COVID-19 infection have largely been seen to be asymptomatic or develop mild symptoms.

The present pandemic needs a special intervention in order to ensure the physical and mental wellbeing
of women and children. Hence, the recommendations while taking into account these issues, attempt
to adopt a comprehensive and sensitive approach which can create availability, accessibility and
affordability of all resources to these groups. This also fits well with the government's approach, the
'whole of government' and 'whole of society' to navigate this current crisis.

Third wave: The ticking timeline

Experts warned of an imminent third COVID-19 wave while the nation was still in the middle of a raging second wave. In the first week of May 2021, K Vijay Raghvan, Principal Scientific Advisor to PM, called the third wave of COVID inevitable and that it could cross age groups and may put children at similar risk as adults.

Some experts warned that a third wave could hit within 12-16 weeks, and others are worried about newer mutations that can weaken existing vaccines.

IIT Kanpur has predicted three likely scenarios for the third wave based on the level of unlocking.

Reuters' opinion survey of 40 experts: arrival by October 20219 has forecasted that the third wave
of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to hit India between July 15 and October 13, 2021.

Delta-Plus Variant: Driver of the third wave?

The Delta-Plus variant formed due to the mutation in the B.1.617.2 (Delta variant) that drove the
fatal second surge in India. This new variant of concern is a sub-lineage of the Delta variant that has acquired a spike protein mutation 'K417N' which is also found in the Beta variant (first detected in South Africa).

Three patients have succumbed due to this variant so far in India, one an octogenarian with comorbidities (Maharashtra) and two unvaccinated (Madhya Pradesh).

School reopening and third wave

With many states like Punjab, Karnataka, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh reopening the schools and many others planning to do so (Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh), the looming threat of third wave on unvaccinated children has again become a point of contention across the country.

Dr. Randeep Guleria had also advocated the resumption of physical classes of primary schools provided
all the adults involved have full vaccine coverage. He also cautioned "Children mostly have mild
infections and some even are asymptomatic, they, however, can be carriers of the infection, which is
dangerous for the medically compromised section of society.