Congress-JMM-RJD set to form govt in Jharkhand, predicts India Today-My Axis exit poll

Ranchi, Dec 20: The BJP is unlikely to repeat its 2014 performance and the Congress-JMM-RJD alliance is all set to storm to power in Jharkhand by winning between 38-50 seats in the 81-memeber assembly, predicts India Today exit poll.

The saffron party is likely to be restrained in the bracket of 22-32 seats with 41 being the cut-off mark. The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha is likely to bag 2-4 seats, the AJJU 3-5 seats and others 4-7 seats.

Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), which stayed out of the NDA or the UPA, is expected to fetch somewhere between 2 to 4 seats.

On the other hand, Sudesh Mahtos All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) had won 5 seats in the last Assembly polls and is expected bag 3 to 5 and others will get 4-7 seats.

Prediction:

Cong- JMM: 38 to 50 seats with 37% votes

BJP: 22 to 32 seats with 34 % votes

AJSU: 3 to 5 seats with 9% votes

JVM: 2 to 4 with 6% votes

Others: 4 to 7 seats

India Today exit poll results are based on a sample size of 12,489, comprising 76 per cent men and 24 per cent women.

Exit poll results are being seen as a litmus test for the ruling BJP whose Chief Minister Raghubar Das battles anti-incumbency, rural distress, resentment over lack of jobs, even a divide within the party over the choice of poll candidates.

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-AJSU alliance swept the state winning 13 out of the 14 seats and securing 55.3% votes. However, there can be sharp vote swings between general and state elections, as recent state elections, and several state elections since 2014 have demonstrated.

The 2014 assembly elections, the BJP won 37 while the Congress got 6 seats. The rest were shared by the state parties.

The opposition alliance of Congress, JMM and RJD has projected Hemant Soren as its chief ministerial candidate.

The state went to poll in five phases starting from November 30. Counting of votes is scheduled on 23 December.