Chhattisgarh Exit Poll 2023: How Accurate Were The Results In 2018 Assembly Election?

As the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections of 2023 draw to a close, various pollsters and news channels have released their exit poll results. While the final outcome will only unravel on Counting Day, scheduled for December 3rd, exit polls are often regarded as a precursor to discern polling trends. Yet, their accuracy has exhibited a mixed track record, sometimes aligning with the eventual results while occasionally missing the mark entirely.

To evaluate the credibility of exit polls in Chhattisgarh, it's important to reflect on their performance during the previous Assembly election in 2018.

In the poll-by-poll analysis of the 2018 Chhattisgarh elections, Times Now's CNX and Republic's Jan ki Baat erred significantly by overestimating BJP's expected dominance while underestimating Congress's performance. Conversely, Jan ki Baat correctly anticipated JCC+'s success in securing 5 seats.

Republic's CVoter accurately forecasted Congress as the leading party but miscalculated seat projections for both Congress and BJP. India Today's Axis my India achieved precision in projecting Congress and BJP's tallies but inflated BJP's anticipated seats, offering a range of 21-31 seats.

NewsX's Neta faced a marked discrepancy in predictions, vastly overestimating BJP's seats at 43 and underestimating Congress's eventual landslide victory with 68 seats versus their projection of 40. ABP News' CSDS veered completely off course, predicting a sweeping BJP victory with 52 seats while underestimating Congress's triumph with 35 seats.

Today's Chanakya and News Nation correctly foresaw Congress's ascent but overstated BJP's strength. India TV, meanwhile, misjudged BJP's seat majority, forecasting approximately 32-38 seats for Congress, but accurately predicted seat counts for JCC+ and Others.

Of the nine exit polls, five inaccurately predicted BJP's emergence as the primary party, while four correctly predicted Congress's prominence but overestimated BJP's seat share.