Can upper caste reservation negate SP-BSP combine in UP

New Delhi, Jan 11: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to have got the answer for alliance of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) in the name of reservation to the general category. There are around 25 per cent upper caste population that plays decisive role on around 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

In such a situation, the BJP finds general category reservation as the biggest weapon to nullify the impact of the alliance. The party feels that it can get even better results than the last elections in the state. The state with 80 seats has always played the important role in the formation of the government at the Centre. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA had won record 73 seats. Out of these 73 seats, 37 seats were such on which victory was ensured by upper caste voters.

It was assumed that around 80 per cent upper caste voters voted for the BJP and the role of upper caste voters in 2017 Assembly elections was also big. There were around 44 per upper caste MLAs winning the elections. It is well known that the role of upper caste voters have always been very important. The role of upper caste in the victory and defeat has been over 50 per cent.

In the present scenario, it is being felt that the BJP will face the maximum loss with the SP and the BSP joining hands in the state. In the last elections the BJP was benefited from the division of votes. Amendment in the SC/ST Act has caused anger among upper caste against the Modi government. This has become the main reason for the defeat of the BJP in three states.

So barely 100 days away from the Lok Sabha elections, this decision of providing 10 per cent reservation to upper caste could proved to be a game changer in the state for the UP at least. Tilt of upper caste towards the BJP will increase with reservation given to them who were otherwise angry with the party.

It will also minimize the impact of the SP-BSP alliance. This decision will stop the upper caste voters to avoid NOTA. As per 2011 census, there are around 25 per cent upper caste voters in the state. Out of 19.98 crore population, SC with 4.14 crore are 20.70 per cent, ST with 11.34 lakh are 0.6 per cent, there is no official data about other backward class (OBC) but it is estimated to be 54 per cent. Upper caste are estimated to be 25 per cent in which Brahmins are maximum.

The BJP is focusing youth upper caste voters who had played important role in the last Lok Sabha elections. Anger of the poor upper caste was increasing as they were not getting any assistance from the government. Now the Yogi government is also planning to replicate this in the state. It is being said that since elections are close so in February Assembly may be convened to clear it in the state as well.