Can India stay immune to Covid?

Visuals of hospitals in Beijing, being overwhelmed by patients and of morgues filled with bodies of those who succumbed to the disease lend a horrific memory of second coronavirus wave in India.

New Delhi Dec 21: Almost three years into the coronavirus pandemic, China is witnessing a massive upsurge in the Covid cases. While the health experts across the globe have sounded alarm bells, few believe that Covid situation in China is along 'expected lines', due to its recent removal of the Zero-COVID policy.

According to healthdata.org predicts 3,00,000 people could die from COVID-19 infections by April 2023 and 1.6 million people could die by the end of the year.

So, it is certain that the situation in big cities in China, including Beijing is spiraling out of control.

Visuals of hospitals in Beijing, being overwhelmed by patients and of morgues filled with bodies of those who succumbed to the disease lend a horrific memory of second coronavirus wave in India driven by the emergence of the highly deadly variant of Covid-19 called Delta. But does India need to worry about the increase in infections in China now?

Amid surge in China, experts believe that there should be a close watch on whether a new variant emerges. Genome sequencing is going to be crucial in recognising new emerging variants, and how they are behaving.

Experts say that chances of rise in Covid-19 cases in India is unlikely. "The chances of cases rising are low as India has good herd immunity. However, the threat will remain to the broad population as the virus is likely to mutate as it spreads in China. As the virus spreads to more people in China, it is likely to mutate further. And therefore, we must keep a vigil with respect to rising cases, hospitalisation and mutations of the virus," a daily quoted Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, who retired as head of epidemiology at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), as saying.

However, he points out that as the virus mutates it may have the potential to infect those who have been previously infected with the Omicron strain of COVID-19. "And therefore keeping a vigil is important. Although the risk is not very high, we should keep a vigil on the numbers," he added.

Is India immune to Covid?

India having battled the deadly second covid wave driven by the Delta variant, now seems to be in a far more comfortable position.

For India, the good news is that the BF.7 covid variant, which is triggering covid surge in China is not new.

India, for instance, has been detecting these strains and data from India's SARS CoV 2 genomic surveillance programme, or INSACOG, shows that BF.7, too, has been present here for months.

Experts say that the current infection and death rates in China may be because the country has a lower level of population immunity than that in other countries.

Given extensive Covid vaccination drive in India, there is no room for pub panic on surge of covid cases but we have to maintain vigil.

It is for this reason India need not be too worried about the covid explosion in China.