Budget Blues: How Middle-Class Meltdown Could Impact BJP's Electoral Prospects

The Budget 2024, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, left the majority of the middle class feeling overlooked and dissatisfied.

For a decade, this segment of the population hasn't received much relief, and continues to bear a heavy tax burden while both earning and spending, reported India Today.

Photo Credit: PTI

The discontent was palpable on social media, with many expressing their grievances through memes and critical comments, including those from traditionally pro-BJP voices.

One user noted, "At least Congress appeases its votebank. BJP only teases its votebank," highlighting the frustration with the current government's approach.

Another user, a certified financial planner, called the Budget "the best example" of how the Modi government had "lost connect with the people, especially the middle class".

A tech content creator lamented, "I want a Finance Minister who truly understands the struggles of the middle class... Today's ministers are out of touch, living in a bubble, completely unaware of the real challenges faced by ordinary citizens."

The middle class, estimated to comprise about 31% of India's population according to a report by the People Research on India's Consumer Economy (Price), is a crucial yet non-partisan voter segment.

Historically, they have supported the BJP for its business-friendly policies and perceived urban-centric approach. However, the lack of relief in the Budget 2024 has led to a significant backlash.

A YouTuber's post encapsulated the sentiment, "Taxes like America, services like Somalia."

Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari explained the root of the discontent. He said, "The taxpaying middle class has realised that it is doing the heavy-lifting. They are paying more in taxes than the corporates."

This sentiment was exacerbated by the Budget 2024's measures, which included a tax relief of up to Rs 17,500 for the salaried in the new tax regime but also raised taxes on Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG) and removed indexation benefits, impacting those relying on investments to supplement their income.

The middle class plays a pivotal role in determining the BJP's electoral success. In the 2014 and 2019 general elections, BJP benefited from the middle class's support. However, a post-poll survey indicated that a 3% shift in middle-class votes away from the BJP contributed to its inability to secure a majority on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where it won 240 seats, down from 303 in 2019. This shift echoes the 2004 election, where a similar middle-class vote shift led to the defeat of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.

Tiwari highlighted the importance of this demographic: "The middle class gives the edge to the BJP. 35% of the middle class, or about one-third of the segment, has been voting for the BJP in recent polls," contributing 11% to the BJP's vote share.

The economic policies and perceived neglect have strained this relationship, signaling potential challenges for BJP if it fails to address the middle class's concerns effectively.