BSP's Loss, SP-Congress' Gain In Uttar Pradesh

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), once a dominant force in Uttar Pradesh politics, suffered a major setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, by failing to secure a single seat.

From clinching 10 Lok Sabha seats with a 19.2 per cent vote share in the 2019 general polls, the BSP's support dwindled to 9.39 per cent in 2024. Despite also drawing a blank in 2014, its vote share then stood at a formidable 19.6 per cent. Notably, the party hit its lowest vote share in UP at 12.8 per cent during the 2022 assembly elections.

Who gained from BSP's decline?

The decline of the BSP has notably benefited the INDIA Bloc, with both the SP and Congress gaining traction among its former supporters. In 2019, the BSP secured victory in two SC reserved constituencies, Nagina and Lalganj, out of 17 SC seats in UP. However, in 2024, Chandrashekhar Azad of the Azad Samaj Party won Nagina, while SP candidate Daroga Prasad Saroj claimed Lalganj.

In contrast, in 2014, non-Jatav Dalits started leaning towards the BJP as it gained momentum in UP. However, by 2024, Mayawati's influence among Jatavs had notably diminished.
The opposition's 'Samvidhan Bachao' (Save the Constitution) campaign struck a chord with Mayawati's core voters, who realized that backing the BSP wouldn't sway election outcomes.

However, Mayawati has vehemently rejected claims that the BSP is a "B-team" of the BJP, a narrative that deterred Muslim support. With Muslims and even Jatavs showing reluctance, the BSP's future in UP looks uncertain.

Jatavs, who are considered the backbone of the BSP, are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the party's declining influence and are expressing dissatisfaction with Mayawati's campaign. The rising dissent among Jatavs indicates internal challenges that the BSP is facing in Uttar Pradesh.

The BSP's decline has allowed the SP to garner support from Dalit voters in constituencies where the BJP previously dominated. Out of 17 SC reserved seats, the BJP won 15 in 2019, but this decreased to eight seats in 2024, with the SP and Congress securing six and one seat respectively. Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav's 'PDA' slogan aimed to attract support from EBC, SC, and minority communities.

The victory of Awadhesh Prasad, SC candidate fielded by the SP, from Faizabad, a BJP stronghold clearly signaled a shift in electoral dynamics.

With just one MLA in the current UP assembly and zero MP, the BSP is facing existential crisis.