BJP's Rajya Sabha Numbers Takes A Hit, NDA Falls 12 Seats Short Of Majority

The BJP's strength in the Rajya Sabha has decreased after the terms of nominated members Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani ended.

These members were initially selected by President Droupadi Murmu on the advice of the ruling party and later formally allied with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. Their retirement brings the BJP's count to 86 seats and reduces the NDA's total to 101, which is below the majority mark of 113 in the 245-member House.

The current strength of the Rajya Sabha is 225.

This change means the Centre now relies more on non-NDA parties to pass Bills in the Upper House. BJP can count on 15 votes from its NDA allies but needs at least 13 additional votes to secure a majority. The YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), with 11 seats, is a likely supporter, as it has provided issue-based support in the past.

The AIADMK, with 4 seats, could also be a crucial ally, although its relationship with the BJP has been strained since their split last December.

Other non-aligned parties, such as the BRS with 4 seats, and various independents, may also come into play. BJD, with 9 seats, has turned away from supporting the BJP after losing to them in the recent state election.

Currently, there are 20 vacant seats in the Rajya Sabha, including 11 held by elected members for which polls are expected this year.

These seats are distributed across Maharashtra (2), Assam (2), Bihar (2), Haryana (1), Rajasthan (1), Madhya Pradesh (1), Telangana (1), and Tripura (1).

The BJP-led alliance has the numbers to win seats in Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Tripura, and potentially 2 more in Maharashtra, giving them a possible 9 additional seats. If these seats are secured, along with support from nominated members and the YSRCP, the BJP will have enough votes to cross the majority mark.

There are also 4 seats vacant from Jammu and Kashmir, which is expected to hold an Assembly election by September 30, following a Supreme Court order.

The Telangana seat is likely to be won by the Congress, which recently came to power in the state. Winning this seat is crucial for Congress as it would give the party enough votes to claim the Leader of the Opposition post in the Rajya Sabha, allowing them to hold this position in both Houses of Parliament.