BJP's Historic Win In Haryana: Big Takeaways

Defying anti-incumbency, the ruling BJP secured a third consecutive term in Haryana, halting Congress' comeback in the assembly elections, with results announced on Tuesday.

The BJP recorded its best-ever result in the state, winning 48 seats-11 more than the Congress. Meanwhile, smaller parties like the JJP and AAP suffered significant losses, and the INLD managed to win only two seats.

Despite the BJP's clear victory, the vote shares of the two major parties were closer than expected. The BJP garnered 39.94% of the votes, while Congress trailed slightly with 39.09%. Comparatively, in the 2019 elections, the ruling party secured 40 seats with a 36.49% vote share, while Congress had 31 seats with 28.08%.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress-National Conference alliance offered some solace to Congress, with the party winning six of the 30 seats it contested, while the National Conference claimed a decisive 42.

Key Takeaways from the Results

Factionalism and Overconfidence Cost Congress

Congress' strategy, centred around Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda, backfired. The sidelining of other prominent leaders, including Kumari Selja, alienated significant sections of the party. Internal power struggles, such as Hooda and his son Deepender's "Ghar Ghar Congress" yatra, competing with Selja's "Congress Sandesh" yatra, confused voters.

Hooda had a strong hand in candidate selection, with 72 of 90 tickets distributed on his advice. Selja, meanwhile, struggled to secure tickets for candidates in her own constituency of Sirsa. The overabundance of ticket seekers led to internal rebellions that hurt the Congress' chances.

Exit Polls Predictions Go Wrong Again

Once again, exit polls have misjudged the results, particularly in Haryana, where they predicted a Congress sweep. This has further eroded the credibility of exit polls, which will need to reevaluate their methodologies ahead of future elections.

BJP's "Change CM, Retain State" Strategy Yields Good Result

The BJP's policy of replacing chief ministers to combat anti-incumbency has proven effective once again. The "change CM, retain state" strategy has helped the party retain power in Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Tripura, and now in Haryana.

BJP Has Upper Hand Against Congress In Head-To-Head Contests

Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has consistently outperformed Congress in head-to-head contests. Congress has improved its performance in recent elections, such as the Bharat Jodo Yatra and victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. However, Haryana shows that Congress still struggles to convert electoral opportunities into victories.

Voters' Split Work In BJP's Favour

A divided opposition in Haryana helped the BJP secure its win. Congress and AAP contested separately, and the division of votes between other opposition alliances like INLD-BSP and JJP-Azad Samaj Party worked in BJP's favour.

Boost For BJP For Maharashtra-Jharkhand Polls

The win in Haryana has set the stage for BJP in upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, offering a boost in momentum. Political trends often mirror stock market behaviour, where positive momentum can tip the scales in competitive races.

Victory Silences Critics Within

Last but not least, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image had taken a beating after the party was reduced to 240 in the Lok Sabha polls, a few months ago. In fact, the RSS had taken digs at the PM on a few occasions. However, this victory will silence the critics for now.

After ten years in power, winning a third consecutive term is a major victory, especially in a state that was the centre of farmers' protest and wrestlers' protests.