BJP set to bag 115-125 seats in Gujarat polls: India Today-Axis My India opinion poll

Axis My India asked respondents whether they would back whichever party Hardik decided to support.

The BJP is set to retain its bastion in Gujarat despite facing a 22 year anti-incumbency factor, according to the results of the India Today-Axis My India Opinion Poll.

According to the opinion poll conducted by Axis between September 15 and October 15 in all the 182 constituencies of Gujarat, the BJP is projected to bag between 115-125 seats.

The Congress, which is the principal opposition in the state, is projected to bag between 57-65 seats. In the last assembly elections held in 2012, the Congress party had bagged 60 seats.

Out of the 18,243 respondents sampled by Axis My India, 48 per cent said that they would vote for the BJP, while 38 per cent said that they would vote for the Congress.

The poll shows that the Congress has an edge among 32 per cent of the electorate - Muslims 10 per cent, Dalits 6 per cent and Patidars 16 per cent. On the other hand, the BJP has an edge among 67 per cent of the electorate - OBC 37 per cent, ST 15 per cent and General 15 per cent.

This opinion poll takes into account the extra votes the Congress may get with the support of OBC youth leader Alpesh Thakore and Dalit activist Jignesh Mewani. But the vote share predictions do not account for the additional bump the opposition can get if Patidar leader Hardik Patel announces that he too will back the Congress. Over the last few years, Hardik Patel has emerged as an influential leader of the Patidar community.

The Patidars are the dominant caste in the state, making up 16 per cent of the total electorate. They play a decisive role in 21 out of the state's 182 seats.

Axis My India asked respondents whether they would back whichever party Hardik decided to support. Two percent of the total respondents said they would back the party which had the support of the Patidar.

According to the pollsters at Axis My India, if Hardik openly supports the Congress, the party's vote share can climb from 38 per cent to 40 per cent. This could lead to a gain of about 5-10 seats for the Congress and a commensurate loss in seat share for the BJP.

In this poll, incumbent Vijay Rupani of the BJP emerges as the number one choice of the voters to be the state's next chief minister with 34 per cent of the respondents picking him as their number one choice. Shaktisinh Gohil of the Congress comes in second with 19 per cent approval ratings.

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