BJP-PDP break up: The four possible scenarios in J&K

The BJP announced that it was breaking away from the PDP. This effectively ended the BJP-PDP government in Jammu and Kashmir. The question is what next in Jammu and Kashmir.

In all there are 89 seats in the assembly which includes two nominated MLAs. However when a trust vote is conducted, the half way mark is calculated on the basis of 87 MLAs and not 89.

In the assembly the PDP has 28 MLAs while the BJP has 25. The National Conference has 15 while the Congress has 12 MLAs. There are 5 independents, 1 each from the CPI(M) and PDF. In addition to this there are 2 nominated members taking the total strength to 89. The half way mark is 44.

Scenario one:

With Mehbooba Mufti resigning, the first option to form the government would go to the National Conference. If the NC and Congress come together then the two parties would have 27. If the parties can drum up the support of the indepenents, CPI and PDF, the number would be 34. This would not be sufficient to form the government.

Scenario two:

If the Congress reaches out to the PDP, then the numbers of both parties would be at 40 which is still 4 short of the majority mark. With the support of the Independents, the two parties would be able to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir.

Scenario three:

If the NC and BJP come together then the two parties would have 40 MLAs, again short by 4. The independents would come in handy in such a scenario. However for now this is the most unlikely scenario.

Scenario four:

No party stakes a claim to form the government, which means President's rule comes into force. President's rule can be in force for six months and can be extended from time to time. In such a scenario, the Governor would need to wait for a party to come forward and stake a claim. If no party does, then one could witness elections next year. The term of the J&K assembly is six years and comes to an end in 2020.