New Delhi, Oct 4: The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to lose in the upcoming Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, a survey conducted by C-VOTER and ABP News predicted on Saturday.
In the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly, the Congress is projected to win 47 seats with a 38.9% vote share and the BJP is expected to win 40 seats with a 38.6% vote share.
The ruling BJP, the main Oppositon Congress and regional outfits are eyeing tribal communities, which comprise around 32 per cent of the population and can influence the outcome in a significant number of seats in the 90-member assembly.
The BJP, which is in power in Chhattisgarh since 2003, is confident of getting the support of adivasis once again.
Meanwhile, the Congress, which has been struggling to make a comeback in the state after being voted out of power in 2003, too, is confident of getting the support of tribals.
The BJP had then won 50 of the 90 seats and ousted the Ajit Jogi-led Congress government from power. The saffron outfit had managed to bag 25 of the 34 ST-reserved seats.
The Congress had won 37 seats, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had to contend with two and one seat, respectively.
In 2008, the BJP retained power, winning 50 seats. Its main support came from tribals as it won 19 of the 29 ST- reserved segments.
The delimitation exercise had reduced the number of ST -reserved seats from 34 in 2003 to 29 in 2008.
However, in the 2013 assembly polls, the BJP saw erosion in its tribal vote base which shifted significantly to the Congress. However, the shift was not enough for the country's oldest political party to wrest power from the BJP.
The Congress managed to win 18 of the 29 tribal- reserved seats but its overall tally was limited to 39. The BJP registered its third consecutive poll win, clinching 49 seats, 11 of them reserved for tribals.