BJP Confronts Electoral Challenges In Maharashtra And UP Amidst Alliance Shifts

The BJP has won a majority in the last two Lok Sabha elections, with Maharashtra and UP playing key roles. These states have the most seats, and the BJP's performance was strong in 2014 and 2019. However, this time, the BJP-Mahayuti alliance faces challenges.

Maharashtra is crucial for the BJP-led NDA. After UP's 80 seats, Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, the NDA won 42 seats here, and in 2019, they got 41 seats. But now, even some BJP leaders think getting 30 to 32 seats would be lucky.

In the 16th Lok Sabha, the BJP won 23 seats and its ally Shiv Sena got 18. The performance was similar in the 17th Lok Sabha. The Mahayuti is in government in Maharashtra. It was expected that BJP's allies Shiv Sena and NCP would dominate the opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

However, MVA, including Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and NCP (Sharad Pawar), seems to be changing this view. If Mahayuti fails to meet expectations on election day, it is important to look at why this happened.

Seat sharing among opposition alliances had ups and downs. But they decided on seats earlier than Mahayuti. Some seats between BJP-Shiv Sena and NCP were decided only after the first two phases. This left NDA with less time for united campaigning.

There are also claims that ruling coalition leaders did not fully support each other during campaigns. For example, Shiv Sena MLA Suhas Kande said NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal did not campaign well for Shiv Sena candidate Hemant Godse in Nashik and BJP candidate in Dindori.

There are even claims that NCP workers in Dindori campaigned for Sharad Pawar's faction instead of the BJP candidate. VBA and AIMIM have contested elections together before, getting many Dalit-Muslim votes. This hurt Congress-NCP but helped BJP.

This time, there is no such coordination between Owaisi and Ambedkar, which may benefit the opposition alliance directly. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena could also hurt BJP in Maharashtra.

Apart from Thane and Kalyan near Mumbai, Shinde's strength is not as visible as Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UTB). The BJP was worried about this and tried to convince Shinde not to give tickets to some 'incompetent' MPs again.

The BJP wanted some of Shiv Sena's seats and offered Shinde nine seats while fielding its candidates on others. Shinde agreed to only 15 seats and changed candidates on just three seats.

This has led to a situation where Shiv Sena candidates seem like a burden on BJP voters. This issue is seen in places like Mumbai South and Mumbai North West.

BJP leaders say there are at least six seats where Shiv Sena's sitting MPs seem weak this time. The Maratha reservation movement has also increased BJP's problems.

In Marathwada's eight seats, the party faces tough fights on at least six due to this movement. For example, in Beed, where victory seemed certain, the movement has created doubts.

Mumbai has six Lok Sabha seats. Weak Shiv Sena candidates have troubled the claimed seats in seat sharing. Uddhav Thackeray has made Marathi-Gujarati an issue easily.

Last time, NDA got all six Mumbai seats. This time, it faces tough fights in four of them.