BJP Targets Third Straight Win in UP Elections, Modi Leads Charge

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming for a third consecutive win at the center in the upcoming elections, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading the campaign in Meerut, Uttar Pradesh. Despite changes in his speech format over time, the choice of Meerut as a starting point remains constant. This year, a notable change is the presence of Jayant Chaudhary, leader of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which holds significant influence in western UP and is part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP.

This election sees the BJP nominating Arun Govil, famous for his role as Lord Rama in the Ramayana TV series, from Meerut. He replaces three-time MP Rajendra Agrawal. The party hopes Govil's candidacy will secure a significant victory in this region. Historically, Meerut has been a stronghold for the BJP, winning six out of eight Lok Sabha elections since 1991.

In his campaign speeches, PM Modi has focused on combating corruption, especially following an opposition rally in Delhi. He contrasts his 'Remove Corruption' mantra against those he claims are trying to 'Save the corrupt', framing the election as a battle between these two sides. Additionally, Modi has revisited significant topics from past campaigns, such as the Muzaffarnagar riots in 2014 and the Balakot airstrike in 2019, to emphasize his points on security and social issues.

The impact of Modi's speeches on the region's seven Lok Sabha seats is evident from past election results. In 2014, known as the Modi wave, BJP's Rajendra Agrawal won 47.86% of votes in Meerut. The 2019 elections saw a slight increase in BJP votes despite an alliance between SP, BSP, and RLD. Similarly, other constituencies like Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar showed strong BJP performances despite strong opposition candidates.

In Bijnor and Kairana, although there was a shift in voting patterns between 2014 and 2019, the BJP managed to maintain or slightly increase its vote share. Saharanpur presented a unique case where the BJP received more votes in 2019 than in 2014 but lost to a joint opposition candidate. Lastly, Nagina saw a win for the BJP with an increased vote share in 2019 compared to 2014.

For the 2024 elections, under an alliance agreement, the BJP has relinquished seats like Baghpat and Bijnor to RLD but remains hopeful due to its increased vote share in previous elections. This strategic positioning highlights the party's efforts to consolidate its base while navigating the complexities of coalition politics.