The Grand Alliance in Bihar is on a shaky wicket. The Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar is likely to call on his deputy Tejashwi Prasad Yadav to resign. The decision is being taken following the CBI raids that were conducted at several locations including the residence of Tejaswhi who is the son of RJD chief, Lalu Prasad Yadav.
A meeting of the JD(U) has been scheduled to discuss the future course of action. The JD(U) would insist that Tejashwhi would resign from the post of deputy chief minister in the wake of the CBI registering an FIR against him.
While Nitish Kumar has not yet commented on the matter in public, he feels that it would be better if the deputy CM put in his papers on his own. Sources tell OneIndia that Nitish is insistent that his deputy resigns as him continuing in office would send out wrong signals.
What the numbers say:
Any such move by the RJD could spell trouble for the government. The RJD is likely to pull out and rock the Nitish Kumar led government. If the RJD were to withdraw support to the JD(U) the Congress which is also part of the Grand Alliance will follow suit.
However in the existing scenario, the bigger trouble would be for the RJD if it withdraws support. The JD(U) can comfortably form the government with the BJP even if both the Congress and RLD withdraw support. For the RJD on the other hand, it would not be able to form the government despite it being the single largest party in the state.
The Bihar Legislative assembly has 243 seats and the magic number is 122. The JD(U) has 71 seats while the RJD has 80. The Congress on the other hand has 27 seats while others including the independents are 12 in number.
If the RLD and the Congress ally and manage to bag all the other 12 seats, then it would have 119 seats which is still 3 short of the magic number. The JD(U) on the other hand with the support of the BJP will have 124 seats, 2 more than the magic number.