Bihar, UP to be swept away by 'Modi wave': India Today-Cicero survey

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Bangalore, April 13: The key state players in the 16th Lok Sabha election 2014, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, are likely to be grabbed by the BJP, thanks to the "Modi wave", the poll suvey conducted by India Today Group and Cicero revealed.

According to the poll survey findings, out of UP's 80 parliamentary seats and Bihar's 40 seats, the BJP is expected to win 68 out of total 120 seats of both states.

Uttar Pradesh- Poll survey

In terms of vote-share, BJP is set to get 17.5% and 16.7% in UP and Bihar respectively.

The "magic figures" for BJP in the hindi heartland, UP seems to be a result of his rigorous election campaigning in the state as well as his close aide, Amit Shah is the party unit in-charge and most importantly, Narendra Modi is himself is contesting from Varanasi, whose vibrations will definitely be felt in neighbouring Bihar.

In 2009, the BJP got only 10 seats but in 2014, the poll survey indicates that the tally may go upto 46 seats.

Survey findings for regional parties of UP

The survey further revealed that the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) is expected to bag 6 seats fewer than its current tally of 21, Mayawati's BSP- 9 to 13 seats and Ajit Singh's RLD - 6 to 10 seats.

In 2009, SP got 23.3% of vote share and this year, it may get 22% of vote-share despite last year's Muzaffarnagar's communal clashes.

In 2009, BSP got 27.3% of vote share while this time, it may just get reduced to 9.4%.

In 2009, Congress won 21 seats in UP but this year, its vote share may come down to 17%.

In terms of next prime minister, 42% of respondents want to see Modi as next PM while only 17% voted for Rahul Gandhi as their PM choice.

Bihar-Poll survey

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) is all set for an embarassing defeat after parting 17-year-old alliance with the NDA.

The survey revealed that in comparison with 2009's 20 seats, the JDU is set for a "complete decimation" by getting only "0-2 seats".

Ram Vilas Paswan- led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), with the support of BJP is likely to gain 20-24 seats as compared from 12 seats, it got in 2009 polls. It will also help BJP in raking up "Dalit votes".

Lalu Prasad's RLD along with Congress alliance is expected to win 15 to 19 seats while in 2009, the two parties bagged six seats each as they contested separately.

In terms of vote-share, BJP-LJP combined will get 38% as compared to 2009's 20.5%.

The "bad news" for Nitish Kumar is that his vote-bank of Kurmis are also set to change their loyalties towards BJP. Even Muslims are also likely to cast their votes in RJD-Congress favour.

In Bihar, 43% of youth voters said that they will vote for BJP.

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