Bihar Pre Poll Survey: NDA May Win Majority, MGB Struggles Says Multiple Opinion Polls

The latest Bihar pre poll surveys results suggest that the Janata Dal (United)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to stay ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025. According to three major opinion polls by POLSTRAT-People's Insight, IANS-Matrize, and Chanakya Strategies point to an NDA leading across most regions in Bihar.

According to the POLSTRAT-People's Insight opinion poll, the NDA could win 133 to 143 seats out of 243, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to get 93 to 102 seats. Smaller parties like Jan Suraaj and AIMIM are projected to secure a few seats each.

The survey shows the BJP winning around 70 to 72 seats, JD(U) 53 to 56, and LJP (Ram Vilas) around 10 to 12. Within the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD may win 69 to 72, Congress 10 to 13, and the Left 14 to 15 seats.

The Chanakya Strategies poll shows a similar pattern, with the NDA projected to win 128 to 134 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 102 to 108. The IANS-Matrize survey gives a stronger edge to the ruling alliance, estimating 153 to 164 seats for the NDA and 76 to 87 for the Mahagathbandhan.

The JVC opinion poll also places the NDA in front, predicting 131 to 150 seats, while the opposition bloc could get 81 to 103.

Vote share projections show the NDA hovering around 45 to 49 percent, with the Mahagathbandhan at about 38 to 40 percent. Political observers believe Nitish Kumar's return to the NDA and the BJP's organisational network have given the alliance an advantage, though local factors and last-minute swings could still affect the final result.

POLSTRAT-People's Insight Survey

NDA: 133-143 seats

• BJP: 70-72
• JD(U): 53-56
• LJP (Ram Vilas): 10-12
• HAM: 0-2

Mahagathbandhan: 93-102

• RJD: 69-72
• Congress: 10-13
• Left parties: 14-15

Others: Jan Suraaj (1-3), AIMIM (2-3), RLM (0-1), VIP (1-2)

Vote Share: NDA - 45%, Mahagathbandhan - 39%, Others - 16%

Chanakya Strategies Survey

NDA: 128-134 seats

Mahagathbandhan: 102-108 seats

Others: 5-9 seats

IANS-Matrize Opinion Poll

NDA: 153-164 seats

Mahagathbandhan: 76-87 seats

Vote Share:

NDA - 49% (BJP: 21%, JD(U): 18%, LJP: 6%, HAM: 2%, RLM: 2%)

Mahagathbandhan - 38% (RJD: 22%, Congress: 8%, Left: 8%)

JVC Opinion Poll

NDA: 131-150 seats (41-45%)

Mahagathbandhan: 81-103 seats (37-40%)

Jan Suraaj: 4-6 seats (10-11%)

Across all four surveys, the NDA maintains a consistent lead, driven by the BJP-JD(U) combine's statewide presence and Nitish Kumar's renewed partnership with the alliance but the Mahagathbandhan is still within striking distance if it manages to consolidate its voter base before polling begins.

Analysts note that while the ruling bloc appears better placed at this stage, factors like seat-sharing adjustments, candidate selection, and regional caste equations could still narrow the gap before polling.

For now, all Bihar pre poll survey data and opinion poll numbers suggest one trend the NDA enters the election season with the upper hand, but the battle for Bihar remains far from settled.