Bihar Elections: JVC Exit Poll Gives Decisive Victory For BJP-Led NDA

Updated: Tuesday, November 11, 2025, 19:25 [IST]

As the two-phase election for the 243-seat Bihar Assembly concluded, two major exit polls-People's Pulse and JVC-Times Now-painted a consistent picture of a comfortable majority for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), easily surpassing the 122-seat mark needed to form a government.

The surveys suggest a significant victory for the alliance, driven by a strong performance across the state, yet the people's preferred choice for the Chief Ministerial chair remains surprisingly split, adding a layer of suspense to the final results.

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Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly election, which had two phases and 243 seats, projected a majority victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with People's Pulse estimating 133-159 seats and JVC-Times Now predicting 135-150 seats, while Tejashwi Yadav was the most preferred candidate for Chief Minister, and incumbent Nitish Kumar followed closely.

Bihar Elections JVC Exit Poll Gives Decisive Victory For BJP-led NDA

The Seat Projection: NDA Holds the Edge

Both pollsters gave a clear majority projection to the NDA:

People's Pulse predicted a massive mandate, projecting the NDA to win 133-159 seats with a robust 46.2% vote share. This range firmly indicates the NDA is on course to cross the majority mark.

The JVC-Times Now Exit Poll echoed this sentiment, projecting the NDA to secure between 135 and 150 seats, confirming a decisive lead.

Conversely, the Opposition Mahagathbandhan is projected to fall significantly short. People's Pulse placed the alliance at 75-101 seats with a 37.9% vote share, while JVC-Times Now gave them a slightly better range of 88-103 seats.

The emerging political force, Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), led by Prashant Kishor, is forecast to have a minimal impact on the final seat count, with People's Pulse predicting 0-5 seats on a 9.7% vote share, and JVC-Times Now projecting 0-1 seat.

The CM Contradiction: Tejashwi vs. Nitish

Despite the NDA's projected seat lead, the People's Pulse survey on the preferred Chief Minister revealed a highly competitive leadership race:

Tejashwi Yadav of the Mahagathbandhan emerged as the most preferred candidate, garnering 32% support.

Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar of the NDA followed closely with 30%.

Other key figures, including Prashant Kishor and Chirag Paswan, each registered 8% of the support.

This competitive CM preference poll sets up a compelling narrative for the final counting day: a predicted victory for the NDA alliance, but with its primary rival's leader holding a slight lead in personal popularity over the veteran incumbent. The actual election results, set to be announced soon, will determine if the alliance's organisational strength and Prime Minister Modi's appeal can overcome the personal popularity challenge posed by Tejashwi Yadav.