Bihar Assembly Poll Trends: Examining Voting In The Previous Three Elections

In the last three Bihar Assembly elections—2010, 2015, and 2020—voting patterns have highlighted both continuity and change. These elections reflect the complex socio-political landscape of Bihar. The rise of the BJP within the NDA, shifting alliances, and the re-emergence of RJD are key narratives. Voter turnout has been moderate, with gender and regional factors playing significant roles in outcomes.

The 2020 Bihar Assembly election was a closely fought contest held in three phases across 243 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the BJP, secured a narrow majority with 125 seats, just surpassing the halfway mark. The Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), won 110 seats.

Political Dynamics in Bihar Elections

The 2015 elections marked a significant shift as the Mahagathbandhan alliance emerged strong. This coalition included RJD, JD(U), and Congress, decisively defeating the BJP-led NDA by winning about 178 seats collectively. Nitish Kumar returned as Chief Minister after switching alliances from BJP to Mahagathbandhan. The unification of non-BJP votes behind this alliance was a key factor in their landslide victory.

In contrast, during the 2010 elections, the NDA led by BJP and JD(U) achieved a substantial majority with around 206 seats. This victory solidified Nitish Kumar's leadership and showcased BJP's growing influence in Bihar politics. The RJD was marginalized, securing only about 22 seats. This election underscored BJP's rise and JD(U)'s dominance under Nitish Kumar's governance model.

Trends Over Three Elections

The voter turnout for the 2020 election was approximately 57.1%, with a notable gender gap favoring women voters. Both alliances had nearly equal vote shares of about 37.2%, making it one of Bihar's closest contests in history. The BJP performed strongly with 74 seats while JD(U) managed to secure 49 seats. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats.

Other parties like AIMIM and left-wing parties also made some gains during these elections, while Congress remained a minor player with only 19 seats. These trends set the stage for future political strategies as parties prepare for upcoming polls.

The three elections from 2010 to 2020 have set the scene for the upcoming 2025 Assembly polls in Bihar. Political strategies, alliances, and voter sentiment will remain crucial as parties navigate this complex landscape.