Bigger concern for India is impact a Taliban victory would have on Kashmir based terror groups

New Delhi, Aug 21: There has been a lot of criticism about the manner in which the United States withdrew troops from Afghanistan. The violence that is playing out is quite evident of that fact.

To discuss the development in Afghanistan, OneIndia's Vicky Nanjappa caught up with Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Woodrow Wilson Center. In this exclusive interview, Kugelman says it would be naive to trust the Taliban. It is carrying out an aggressive PR campaign to argue that the group has changed for the better, Kugelman also says.

How would you describe the handling of Afghanistan by the US? Do you think the pull out was hasty?

The decision to pull out was not made hastily. President Trump's administration signed an agreement with the Taliban back in February 2020 that obliged the US to withdrawal. Then, nearly a year later, in April 2021, President Biden confirmed that the withdrawal would take place by the end of the summer.
Its the execution of the pull out that was far too hasty. A big part of the problem was that the US couldn't have anticipated that the Taliban would seize power BEFORE the withdrawal was complete. This led to the chaotic present situation, where the administration has expedited the withdrawal of US diplomats, and diplomats from other countries and of course thousands of Afghans have scrambled to get out as well.

What the administration should have done right after announcing the withdrawal, back in April, was to draw up blueprints for how the final withdrawal-and possible evacuations of civilians-would play out, and under different circumstances: Scenarios where Kabul is still in control of the government, where it is struggling to keep control, and where it is no longer in control. This could have enabled the US to adjust, and draw on a plan finalised in advance, depending on the actual situation.

The Taliban at least as of now have indicated that there would be a moderate rule with their policies being more inclusive. Do you think it is time for the world to trust them?

It would be naive to trust the Taliban. It is carrying out an aggressive PR campaign to argue that the group has changed for the better. But the Taliban has a terrible track record, first as a repressive theocracy and then as a brutal insurgency. After nearly 30 years of extremism and repression, why should we suddenly think that things will be different?

I do think the Taliban will make a series of gestures. These may include meetings with vulnerable communities, pledges not to target those that worked for the previous government, and assurances that women will be safe and that they should go to school and work. But much of this will be meant to maintain the international legitimacy it gained from the international community after signing its agreement with the US in 2020. It will want to use these gestures as a tool to earn recognition for its new regime.

But let's be clear: Now matter how much it may suggest it's willing to change, the Taliban will never compromise on its fundamental ideology for the sake of recognition and any financial support that comes from that.

What do you make of the statements by the Russians and Chinese on the Taliban?

Their statements have been cautious. These are two countries that will have a much lower bar for recognising the Taliban compared to the US and other Western states that will likely have rights-related conditions. China is keen to work with the Taliban government so that it can bring its infrastructure projects into Afghanistan. Russia has to be more careful, because of historical baggage but also because its links to the Taliban aren't as close as are those of China. But Moscow, like Beijing, has reasons to recognise the Taliban government. It worries more about the threat posed by ISIS than the Taliban, and it will want to support ongoing efforts by the Taliban to fight ISIS, which is a Taliban rival.

The reason for the cautious statements is that, for reputational reasons, neither state wants to convey the impression that it's rushing to recognise a group that until relatively recently was a pariah. But in due course I wouldn't be surprised to see both countries recognise the Taliban government.

Will China play a bigger role in Afghanistan now?

It has an opportunity, that's for sure. Beijing knew it would have a chance to fill the vacuum left by the US withdrawal. But capitalising on this opportunity was going to be difficult so long as the war continued to rage. Even a country like China, willing to invest in volatile spaces, wasn't about to bring infrastructure projects into a conflicted country like Afghanistan. But with the war over-for now-and the Taliban in control, China has an opportunity to deepen its investment footprint in Afghanistan in a big way.

How does Pakistan benefit from the current situation?

Islamabad benefits because one of its long-standing goals-the establishment of a pro-Pakistan government in Afghanistan-has been achieved. Even better for Islamabad, this has come about through nonviolent means, and with the war ending. This means, at least so long as there is no war, that potential spillover effects--like heavy refugee flows--will be held in check.

That said, Pakistan does face security risks. The galvanising effect of the Taliban takeover on regional militants means that the Pakistani Taliban--previously the most deadly and vicious terror group in South Asia, and now making a comeback after years of a degraded threat--will pose a much greater threat to Pakistan.

How should India react to the situation? Do you feel a wait and watch policy should be adopted by New Delhi?

India's in a tough spot. Not only is the Taliban in power in Afghanistan, but India's Pakistani and Chinese rivals are poised to step up their game in Afghanistan. Its influence-fueled by close relations with all of Afghanistan's post-9/11 governments-is set to recede.

India can try to build on its initial outreach to the Taliban in recent months, and hope that it can establish some type of informal relationship that enables it to convey its core interests to the Taliban government--and this means above all ensuring that Indian investments and other assets in Afghanistan are not threatened.

The Taliban have said Kashmir is India's internal matter. Will they try and meddle in Kashmir in the near future?

The Taliban may have ties to foreign governments and international terror groups, but its main strategic focus in parochial, meaning specific to Afghanistan. Kashmir is not a Taliban concern. So we can take the Taliban at its word when it says Kashmir is India's internal matter. However, the bigger concern here is what impact the Taliban victory could have on Kashmir-focused terror groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Might they be inspired to try to carry out new attacks in Kashmir? It's a possibility. Part of this will depend on Pakistan, and its willingness-and ability-to rein in these groups. It's sought to keep them on a tight leash in recent years, and crack down on their infrastructure, amid heavy international pressure.

Should the US re-think its decision and send troops back to Afghanistan again?

Not, it shouldn't. First, Biden's decision was final. He said he plans to move on to other priorities. Additionally, he decided to leave based on assessments of threats to the United States from international terror groups in Afghanistan, and not based on assessments of Taliban strength. Finally, sending troops back to Afghanistan would be very unpopular at home. One of Biden's main reasons for leaving was a concern that staying would not be supported by the American public. Sending troops back-and putting them in harm's way-would be even more unpopular.

I fear that the terrible execution of the withdrawal has distorted thinking about the withdrawal itself, with many believing that the awful things that have happened in recent days at the Kabul airport only happened because of the decision to withdraw. That's not true. It was the poor execution of the withdrawal that caused these terrible things to happen, not the withdrawal itself.

I don't think the US should send troops back to Afghanistan. Instead, it should focus on easing the crisis at the Kabul airport-and that includes negotiating with the Taliban outside the airport--to make sure that those desperately trying to leave can leave. Beyond that, the US should focus on humanitarian support for those displaced by the fighting and broader war. That should be the priority.