Beyond Indus Diplomacy: How The Indian Navy Could Choke Pakistan’s Maritime Lifelines If Provoked

India's recent strategic move to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack sends a powerful diplomatic signal to Pakistan. However, beneath the diplomatic surface, the Indian Navy stands ready to complement this measure through decisive maritime action, potentially choking Pakistan's vital trade routes-mirroring strategies successfully employed during the Kargil conflict.

Historically, the Indian Navy demonstrated this capability during Operation Talwar in 1999. By repositioning its Eastern Fleet into the Arabian Sea, bolstering coastal defenses, and executing joint patrols with the Coast Guard, the Navy effectively imposed a maritime blockade on Pakistan. This strategic move critically reduced Pakistan's fuel reserves to merely six days, compelling then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to concede publicly that Pakistan's economic resilience was severely compromised.

Today, Pakistan's economic stability remains precariously tied to maritime trade, especially through its key ports of Karachi, Gwadar, and Port Qasim. Karachi alone manages around 60% of Pakistan's cargo, including critical oil, LNG, and food imports. Gwadar, funded and developed largely by China, is rapidly gaining significance, set to handle a substantial share of strategic imports by 2025.

However, this maritime dependency is also Pakistan's Achilles' heel, particularly through the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, which funnels 90% of Pakistan's Gulf oil imports. Indian naval dominance in this region could swiftly and significantly cripple Pakistan's economic lifelines.

The Indian Navy today holds an overwhelming strategic advantage in the Arabian Sea, underscored by its extensive fleet of over 150 vessels, including the indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant and the formidable P-8I Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.

Recent naval drills in April 2025 showcased India's readiness, involving anti-ship missile tests, advanced submarine warfare tactics, and drone operations capable of precision strikes. India's updated maritime doctrine explicitly positions trade denial as a viable tool of strategic deterrence, signaling readiness to operationalise economic blockades if necessary.

In contrast, the Pakistan Navy remains severely constrained. Its fleet, comprising merely 36 active units, is dwarfed by India's naval prowess. Critically, only two submarines remain operational, highlighting significant gaps in maritime defense capabilities. This limited naval strength, coupled with heavy reliance on foreign military technology and Chinese investments, severely undermines Pakistan's capacity to safeguard its maritime trade in the face of potential blockade scenarios.

Moreover, any potential maritime blockade by India would align strictly within the frameworks of international maritime law, as defined by UNCLOS and the San Remo Manual. The legitimacy of such actions has historical precedence in Operation Talwar, where India strategically avoided outright war yet exerted maximum economic pressure.

Ultimately, India's decision to suspend elements of the IWT alongside its naval readiness symbolises a nuanced, integrated approach towards deterrence. The clear message: India possesses the capability-and the resolve-to decisively leverage diplomatic and maritime strategies, ensuring national security while compelling Pakistan to reconsider its continued support for cross-border terrorism.

Aritra Banerjee is the co-author of the book 'Indian Navy at 75: Reminiscing the Voyage, and is a defence and security columnist.