Axis My India Exit Poll Predicts Tight Contest Between NDA and Mahagathbandhan in Bihar

The Axis My India Exit Poll for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 has projected a neck-and-neck contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), suggesting that the final outcome could go down to the wire.

According to the survey conducted across all 243 assembly seats, the NDA is expected to secure 43% of the total vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan is close behind with 41%. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), led by Prashant Kishor, is likely to get 4%, with others accounting for 12%.

Gender-wise Voting Pattern

The exit poll reveals interesting gender trends. Among women voters, 45% backed the NDA while 40% voted for MGB. Among men, 42% supported MGB, and 41% opted for the NDA, indicating that women voters may have provided the ruling alliance a slight edge. The JSP managed 5% male and 3% female votes.

Regional Picture

The survey suggests region-wise variations in voter preferences:

• Champaran (21 seats): NDA 12, MGB 9. Vote share - NDA 44%, MGB 41%.
• Seemanchal (24 seats): MGB leads with 15 seats, NDA 8, JSP 1. Vote share - MGB 40%, NDA 37%.
• Kosi (31 seats): NDA 16, MGB 15. Vote share - NDA 43%, MGB 42%.
• Bhojpur (49 seats): NDA 27, MGB 21, Others 1. Vote share - NDA 42%, MGB 40%.
• Mithilanchal (58 seats): NDA 32, MGB 25, Others 1. Vote share - NDA 43%, MGB 41%.
• Pataliputra-Magadh (60 seats): NDA 35, MGB 25.

Party and Seat Projections

The RJD is likely to emerge as the single-largest party, with 67-76 seats. The BJP may win 50-56 seats, while JDU is projected at 56-62. Smaller allies like HAM could get 3, and LJP between 11-16 seats.

Overall, NDA is projected to win 121-141 seats, while Mahagathbandhan could secure 98-118. Jan Suraaj may manage up to 2 seats, with others accounting for 1-7 seats.

CM Choice

When asked about their preferred Chief Minister, 34% of respondents chose Tejashwi Yadav, 22% backed Nitish Kumar, and 4% named Prashant Kishor.

The Axis My India poll thus hints at a tight race, with the NDA holding a narrow edge, but the Mahagathbandhan showing strong regional resilience, especially in Seemanchal and parts of Kosi.