Assembly elections: BJP likely to lose Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, predicts survey

New Delhi, Oct 6: The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to lose all three upcoming Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, a survey conducted by ABP News predicted on Saturday.

The opinion poll predicted that the Congress will win a clear majority in all three states. A good performance in these Assembly elections is likely to give the Congress enough room to negotiate for seats in 2019.

Chattisgarh

In Chattisgarh, again a neck-and-neck battle is predicted. However, the Congress is expected to win around 47 seats out of 90. The BJP will lose this time with 40 seats. vote share percentage of BJP is 38.6% while Congress' is 38.9%.

The BJP had won 49 seats in 2013 assembly elections, while the Congress got only 39 seats. The first phase of polling in Chhattisgarh is on November 12 while the second is on November 20.

Rajasthan

In Rajasthan, the survey says, the BJP is likely to face a major drubbing in Rajasthan which has a 200-member assembly. The party which had won 163 seats in 2013 will be reduced to just 56 seats. Congress which was limited to measly 21 seats in the previous outing will make a handsome turnaround with 142 seats.

As far as the vote share is concerned, the Congress is seen leading with a comfortable vote share of 49.9% as against BJP's 34.3%.

Madhya Pradesh

As per the data, BJP is likely to win 108 seats while the Congress is set to bag 122 seats. The vote share percentage is, however, very close between the two parties here. BJP's vote share is 41.5% while 42.2% is of the Congress. BJP has won 165 seats in 2013 while Congress had just won 58.

The three states are touted to be a semi-final before the Lok Sabha elections 2019. In 2013, the Bharatiya Janata Party had swept the three states and similar outcomes were seen in the Lok Sabha elections. The survey brings-in a positive news for Rahul Gandhi-led Congress which is going through a historic low in terms of its tally in Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and Assemblies across the country.

Other observations

• Top two issues in Rajasthan are water supply 21.8% and employment 17%, in Madhya Pradesh employment 18% and water supply 15.7% and in Chattisgarh roads 21.6% and employment 16.5%.
• Anti-incumbency is uniformly high across all 3 states, directed against states governments, Chief Ministers and local MLAs.
• Weak anti-incumbency sentiment against central government, Prime Minister and Member of Parliaments.
• BJP CMs of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh enjoy higher approval ratings than their lead challengers from the opposition. In Rajasthan Sachin Pilot comfortably outshines Vasundhara Raje in terms of popularity.
• Narendra Modi leads Rahul Gandhi across all states in "split voting phenomenon".