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Assembly elections 2018: Results do not necessarily mean Modi will lose in 2019


New Delhi, Dec 11: The results of the five Assembly elections held in November-December were giving a clear indication that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received its first major jolt in the era of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as it was not predicted to win any of the five states that went to seek the mandate. While the Congress was looking favourites to win the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi was set to return to power in Telangana while the Mizo National Front dominated the North-eastern state of Mizoram.

Assembly elections 2018: Results do not necessarily mean Modi will lose in 2019

The results are unusual going by the trends these days but that is precisely how a democracy works. It has its hidden forces that bring things to level, suggesting a lesson or two to all parties concerned.

Assembly elections 2018: Will Modi take responsibility if three Vajpayee-era CMs fail to deliver?

However, although these results will serve as a reality check for the BJP, it will be jumping the guns to say that the saffron party now has a danger lurking in the Lok Sabha election that is due in some months. The latest elections were fought more over local issues and leaderships and to link it with PM Modi's political future will not be wise.

In 2003, BJP won all these three states but lost Lok Sabha election in 2004

In 2003, the BJP had won elections in the same three states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on the lively issues of bijli, paani and sadak, toppling the Congress in all of them. But in the next Lok Sabha election that followed in 2004, the BJP lost power despite its pro-development slogans and the Congress was back at the helm. In 2008, the Congress came back to power in Rajasthan while the BJP continued to rule MP and Chhattisgarh and the Congress won its second consecutive term at the Centre in 2009.

In 2013, the BJP won all the three states and also the Lok Sabha election in 2014. The saffron party won both this time because of the rising Modi wave and the strong anti-incumbency against the Congress-led UPA II at the Centre.

Congress seems to get a clear majority in Chhattisgarh

Therefore, no uniform conclusion can be drawn from the latest results saying that it will have a certain effect on the Lok Sabha election of 2019. The narrative of a national election is always different from the state ones. True, the BJP's concern will be about saving its Lok Sabha seats from these seats as they had an overwhelming success from these three Hindi heartland states (won 62 out of 65) in 2014 but other than that, it will still be assured about the leadership of Modi at the national level. The Opposition, on the other hand, may feel that its alliance-making process is tighter now but as far as a face to counter Modi is concerned, there is still no readily available solution.

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