Assam Elections 2021: Opinion Polls vs Exit Polls vs Actual Results - What Really Happened?

The 2021 Assam Assembly elections were closely watched across the country, not only because of the political battle but also because they were held during the second wave of COVID-19. Voting took place in three phases - March 27, April 1, and April 6 - and the results were declared on May 2.

With 126 seats in the Assembly and 64 needed for a majority, the main contest was between the BJP-led NDA and a strong opposition alliance led by Congress and AIUDF.

Why Exit Polls Came Late

Unlike usual elections, exit poll results for Assam were delayed. The Election Commission had banned the publication of exit polls from March 27 to April 29, as multiple states were voting during this period.

As a result, Assam's exit poll numbers were released only after voting ended in West Bengal on April 29. This created a long gap between polling and early predictions, increasing curiosity and speculation.

Opinion Polls Before Voting: What Did They Predict?

Before voting began, several opinion polls conducted in March tried to predict the outcome.

Most surveys suggested that the BJP-led NDA would return to power, but with a reduced margin compared to 2016. The estimates generally projected:

• NDA: Around 64 to 78 seats
• Opposition alliance: Around 48 to 60 seats

These predictions indicated a tighter contest than the 2016 elections, when the NDA had won 86 seats.

Exit Polls: First Signals After Voting

Once the voting process was completed, exit polls provided the first post-election estimates.

Most exit polls also indicated an advantage for the BJP-led NDA, though some suggested a close fight. The general trend showed that the ruling alliance was likely to retain power, but the opposition had gained ground.

Actual Results: NDA Returns Comfortably

When the final results were declared on May 2, the outcome was clearer than many predictions suggested.

The BJP-led NDA not only retained power but did so with a comfortable majority. The alliance crossed the required 64-seat mark with ease, proving that its support base remained strong across key regions.

The results showed that while the opposition improved its performance in some areas, it could not match the NDA's overall reach.

Top Winners with Big Margins

Several leaders stood out due to their large victory margins, reflecting strong voter support.

Himanta Biswa Sarma (Jalukbari) registered a dominant win, reinforcing his position as a key leader.

Sarbananda Sonowal (Majuli) also secured a comfortable victory.

Many BJP candidates in Upper Assam and central regions recorded strong leads, showing the party's deep influence in these areas.

At the same time, Congress and AIUDF candidates performed well in certain constituencies, especially in Lower Assam and Barak Valley, where they maintained a strong presence.

Where Polls Got It Right - and Wrong

Opinion polls and exit polls were broadly correct in predicting an NDA victory. However, they underestimated the margin of victory in some cases.

While surveys suggested a close contest, the actual results showed that the NDA had a more comfortable lead than expected. This highlights the limitations of pre-election surveys, especially in a diverse state like Assam.

Key Takeaways from Assam 2021

The Assam elections showed how voter behaviour can sometimes differ from survey predictions.

Opinion polls gave early signals but indicated a tighter race

Exit polls confirmed the NDA's edge

Final results showed a stronger-than-expected mandate for the ruling alliance
The election also highlighted the importance of regional dynamics, alliances, and leadership in shaping outcomes.

The Assam Assembly Elections 2021 offer a clear example of how opinion polls, exit polls, and actual results can differ. While all indicators pointed towards an NDA victory, the final outcome proved more decisive than expected.