Assam Election 2026: NDA Set for Comfortable Win, BJP Likely to Dominate, Say Surveys

The BJP-led NDA appears firmly on track for a decisive victory in the upcoming Assam Assembly elections, according to the latest opinion polls.

A fresh survey by Vote Vibe projects the NDA securing 87-97 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark. In contrast, the opposition INDIA bloc, led by the Congress, is expected to win 26-36 seats.

BJP Maintains Strong Lead

The survey estimates a 44% vote share for the NDA, significantly ahead of the opposition's 36.7%. These numbers reinforce earlier predictions, which had already placed the alliance in a strong position with 80-90 seats.

The ruling alliance currently holds 86 seats, and the latest projections suggest it could further consolidate its position.

Himanta Biswa Sarma Remains Key Factor

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to be a central figure in the NDA's popularity. Around 47% of respondents in the latest survey preferred him as Chief Minister, only slightly down from 48% in the earlier poll.

In comparison, Gaurav Gogoi, a leading Congress face in Assam, received 37.7% support, with many respondents also naming him as their second choice.

Key Issues Influencing Voters

The surveys highlight several major concerns shaping voter sentiment:

• Unemployment
• Corruption
• Demand for a fair investigation into the death of Zubeen Garg

Notably, 42.6% of respondents believe that Garg's death could influence voting decisions in the upcoming polls.

Other Polls Echo Similar Trends

Another survey by IANS-Matrize also points toward a strong NDA victory, projecting 96-98 seats for the ruling alliance with a vote share of around 43-44%.

The Congress, meanwhile, is expected to secure 26-28 seats with a vote share of 39-40%, indicating a gap that may be difficult to bridge.