After LPG Supply Shock, Will Food Shortage Be Next? Hormuz Crisis Could Hit Farmers Worldwide

Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns not only in global energy markets but also across agriculture and food systems. Analysts warn that if shipping through this narrow sea passage is restricted, the disruption could eventually spread from oil and gas supplies to fertiliser flows and food production.

The issue is already drawing attention as LPG supply disruptions in several Indian cities highlight how fragile energy supply chains can be. Restaurants and hotels in places like Bengaluru have warned of temporary shutdowns after commercial LPG cylinder deliveries were reportedly halted without notice. Similar concerns have emerged in Pune and Mumbai, where gas agencies said bookings for commercial cylinders have been paused and supplies are being managed through leftover stock.

Industry bodies say the situation reflects the wider risks linked to global energy disruptions. The National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) has written to Hardeep Singh Puri warning that prolonged shortages of commercial LPG cylinders could trigger a "catastrophic closure" of many restaurants. Meanwhile, prices have also increased, with a 19-kg commercial cylinder rising from around ₹1,754 to nearly ₹1,897 in some areas.

Why the Strait of Hormuz is so important

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical shipping corridors in the world. A large share of global oil and natural gas shipments passes through this narrow waterway every day.

However, energy is not the only commodity moving through this route. Large quantities of fertilisers such as ammonia and urea are also transported from the Persian Gulf region to markets around the world.

Major exporters such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have developed large fertiliser industries because they have access to abundant natural gas-the key ingredient used to produce nitrogen fertilisers.

If shipping through Hormuz becomes restricted, these supplies may struggle to reach global markets.

The link between fertilisers and global food production

Modern agriculture relies heavily on nitrogen fertilisers produced from natural gas. These fertilisers help crops such as wheat, rice and maize achieve yields high enough to feed billions of people.

The industrial process used to produce ammonia was developed by scientists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch in the early 20th century. Their breakthrough allowed fertiliser to be manufactured at industrial scale and transformed global agriculture.

Without synthetic fertilisers, global food production would drop sharply, making it difficult for many countries to sustain current food output.

How a Hormuz disruption could affect farmers

If shipments of fertilisers or natural gas are delayed due to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the immediate impact would likely be higher fertiliser prices and tighter supplies.

Farmers usually buy fertilisers before planting seasons. If supplies become expensive or scarce, growers may reduce the amount of fertiliser they apply or switch to different crops.

Agricultural experts say that even small reductions in nitrogen fertiliser use can lead to significant declines in crop yields, which could affect harvests months later.

Countries most vulnerable to fertiliser shocks

Many major agricultural economies rely heavily on fertiliser imports linked to the Persian Gulf region.

For instance, India imports large amounts of liquefied natural gas used to run domestic fertiliser plants. Similarly, Brazil depends on imported fertilisers to sustain its soybean and maize production.

Even the United States imports fertiliser products despite having significant domestic production.

In poorer regions, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, fertiliser use is already limited due to high costs. A new price surge could further reduce usage and worsen food insecurity.

From fertiliser shortages to food price inflation

The impact of fertiliser shortages rarely appears immediately. Instead, it often emerges months later during harvest seasons.

Lower fertiliser use typically results in lower crop output. As supply tightens, food prices may rise across global markets, affecting staple grains, livestock feed and processed food products.

Such increases tend to hit lower-income households the hardest.

For now, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and fertiliser supplies have not yet been disrupted. However, analysts say the situation highlights how closely the global food system is tied to energy supply chains.

Oil powers vehicles, but fertilisers power crops. If tensions escalate and shipping through Hormuz is restricted, the consequences could extend far beyond oil markets-eventually influencing the cost and availability of food worldwide.