Lok Sabha Elections 2024 | Accuracy Of Exit Polls In The Past

As the Lok Sabha elections draws to a finish on Saturday in the world's largest democracy, all eyes will turn towards political pundits and their exit poll predictions. The number crunching game will begin soon after voting in the 7th phase of polls officially ends.

So, how accurate are the exit polls? Have their predictions hit the bull's eye in the past - 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections? In this article, we'll dive in deep and analyse the accuracy of exit polls in India.

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections were held between April 7 and May 12. The results for the same were announced on May 16. On the other hand, the 2019 polls were held from April 11 to May 19, and the results came out on May 23.

What did the 2009 exit poll predict?

The Congress-led UPA swept the Lok Sabha election edition of 2009. Dr Manmohan Singh was the unanimous choice for the post of Prime Minister by the party. Interestingly, in these elections, the exit polls underestimated the tally of the winning party. An average of four exit polls predicted 195 seats to UPA and a close 185 to the NDA. When the results were out, the Grand Old Party had finally won with 262 seats, while the BJP-led NDA had 158 seats in its kitty. The Congress had won 206 seats in total and BJP 116.

2014 exit polls and effect of 'Modi wave'

2014 was the year of the 'Modi wave'. Most of the exit polls predicted a clean sweep for the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls - which came out to be true. Many exit polls had predicted a solid 283 seats for BJP, while for Congress, 105 seats. The pollsters totally underestimated the extent and depth of Modi and BJP's poll campaign juggernaut. Eventually, when the results were out, the NDA went home smiling with a mammoth total of 336 seats, while Congress only won a mere 60 seats. Riding high on the 'Modi wave', BJP alone had clean swept the polls with a total of 282 seats, and Congress on the other hand, had a humiliating tally of just 44 seats.

2019 exit polls - BJP betters itself

An average of 13 exit polls predicted a combined tally of 306 seats for NDA. On the other hand, UPA was predicted to win around 120 seats. The poll pundits underestimated the PM Modi-led BJP once again here. When the final results were out, NDA had won 353 seats in total, while the UPA had to find solace in only 93. BJP alone had won 303 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress slightly bettered itself from 2014 and had won 52.

Hence, it is clear that exit polls can give us insights of the election outcome, but they aren't as accurate as they're perceived to be.