AAP Gains Rapid Ground in Gujarat, Overtakes Congress to Emerge as Second Biggest Political Force

A new survey for Gujarat in 2026 shows AAP gaining ground and overtaking Congress, with BJP still leading but facing a stronger AAP challenge, especially in urban areas and key regions. The data suggests a potential direct contest between BJP and AAP ahead of the next assembly election.

New survey data suggests Gujarat politics is shifting towards a direct contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Aam Aadmi Party, with Congress losing ground across the state. Figures from the “Pulse of Gujarat 2026” survey, conducted by WeePreside and CIF, show Aam Aadmi Party gaining strong voter support, while Congress experiences another clear decline in its already shrinking base.

According to the same survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party still leads statewide with an estimated vote share of about 49.5 percent. However, analysts note that the main challenger is no longer Congress, which appears weakened, but the Aam Aadmi Party, which has expanded rapidly since the last assembly elections and now seems positioned as Gujarat’s second pole.

Gujarat AAP News and Gujarat AAP Graph in statewide vote share trends

The “Pulse of Gujarat 2026” numbers indicate that the Aam Aadmi Party has reached a projected vote share of 24.8 percent across Gujarat. Congress, in contrast, is estimated at only 17.3 percent. This change suggests that Aam Aadmi Party has overtaken Congress and has emerged as the state’s second largest political party, at least in terms of current voter preference.

Comparing these estimates with previous assembly elections highlights the pace of change. In 2017, Congress secured around 40 percent of the vote. By 2022, that fell sharply to roughly 27 percent. The new survey now points to another drop of about 10 percentage points within three years, underlining an ongoing slide in Congress support among Gujarat voters.

Gujarat AAP News and Gujarat AAP Graph in vote share comparison

Aam Aadmi Party entered the Gujarat assembly contest for the first time in 2022 and then received nearly 13 percent of the vote. The fresh survey suggests that this share has almost doubled within three years. Analysts read this as evidence that a significant part of Congress’s earlier vote bank is shifting towards Aam Aadmi Party, reshaping opposition space in the state.

Survey data broken down by region shows a similar pattern. In Saurashtra-Kutch, where some loss for the Bharatiya Janata Party had already been discussed by observers, Aam Aadmi Party appears to be strengthening its base at a fast pace. In North and Central Gujarat, the Bharatiya Janata Party continues to lead, but Aam Aadmi Party is drawing more support than Congress in many urban pockets.

Gujarat AAP News and Gujarat AAP Graph in urban and metro areas

The survey finds that in Gujarat’s cities and metro centres, voter behaviour is especially favourable to Aam Aadmi Party when compared with Congress. In these urban zones, Aam Aadmi Party is no longer viewed only as a secondary alternative. Instead, many respondents now see it as the primary challenger to the Bharatiya Janata Party, which could shape campaign strategies before the next state election.

Political activity on the ground reflects this changing picture. A large gathering of Aam Aadmi Party workers took place in Ahmedabad, where national convenor Arvind Kejriwal addressed party members and supporters. The event came amid debate on whether a new opposition axis is forming in Gujarat around Aam Aadmi Party rather than Congress.

Gujarat AAP News, Gujarat AAP Graph and Arvind Kejriwal’s statements

At the Ahmedabad conference, Arvind Kejriwal claimed that fear among Gujarat residents is diminishing. Kejriwal stated, “Now the fear has gone out of the minds of the people of Gujarat.” During the same address, Kejriwal also said, “In 2027, power is going to change in Gujarat, and the Aam Aadmi Party will bring about that change in government.” These remarks framed Aam Aadmi Party as preparing for a direct bid for power.

Arvind Kejriwal further commented on the possibility of more arrests of party leaders or supporters. Kejriwal told the gathering that “If more people are sent to jail, there is no need to be afraid. This is a fight against injustice, and the public will respond to it.” According to Aam Aadmi Party’s narrative, the next state election will test how voters respond to these claims of injustice.

Gujarat AAP News and Gujarat AAP Graph for 2017–2026 data overview

The shift in vote share over three electoral cycles and survey years can be summarised as follows.

Findings from WeePreside and CIF suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party still holds the strongest position in Gujarat, yet now faces Aam Aadmi Party as the principal challenger rather than Congress. With the 2027 assembly election approaching, the survey results and recent rallies indicate that the contest may increasingly be framed as Bharatiya Janata Party versus Aam Aadmi Party, with Congress attempting to halt further decline.