Pakistan has been working overtime to work out a three-pronged strategy in Kashmir. On February 4 an alert from the Intelligence Bureau flashed at all police stations in Kashmir stating that the Jaish-e-Mohammad would strike at an Army camp between February 5 and 11.
It was clear that the attack was planned to coincide with the death anniversaries of Afzal Guru and Maqbool Bhatt which fall on February 9 and 11 respectively.
The Intelligence had also warned about a three pronged strategy that Pakistan was working out for Kashmir. Strikes on the Forces, ceasefire violations using heavy weapons and mass infiltration.
The Army has had a break-less winter this year. Normally infiltrations are down, but owing to a relatively dry winter, the infiltration bids are being made every day. The lack of snow on the mountain ridges has promoted Pakistan to go ahead with the infiltrations unabated, the Intelligence says.
The recent escape of Naved alias Abu Hanzala was also part of this larger plan. The Jammu and Kashmir police made it clear that the escape was a result of the dwindling numbers in the ranks of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba which has faced heavy losses as its commanders were gunned down one by one.
The cease-fire violations in the Valley too are at an all time high. Pakistan wants to lose no time and is trying to ensure that a good number of its terrorists roam the streets of Kashmir.
The Intelligence states that such violations are likely to continue all through the winter. The Pakistanis have been using the US TOW-2 anti-tank guided missiles and the 120 mm heavy mortars to target the Indian Army. These are heavy weapons and the intent from Pakistan is clear. On one hand it offers talks at the DGMO level and on the other it resorts to heavy firing thus sending out mixed signals to India.
During the incessant shelling from Pakistan, an exploded missile was brought down to the Army headquarters in Delhi. This is being examined and a preliminary study showed that Pakistan is resorting to brute tactics to keep the Line of Control on the boil.
Further every Intelligence input that has been scrambled in the past few days suggested that the Pakistanis would look to attack the forces. A few days the intelligence warnings flashed all across the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
There are reliable inputs that the Jaish is planning to carry out a fidayeen strike on the forces establishments between February 5 and 11. The death anniversaries of Afzal Guru and Maqbool Bhat fall on February 9 and February 11 respectively. The militants may also carry out grenade attacks on forces convoys and may also resort to IED blasts. A high level vigil needs to be maintained for the period from February 5 to February 11 against any such attack.
"All district SSPs will brief their officers/men on ground and other sister agencies regarding the threat perception" during this period. "We need to take all the preventive measures to thwart the nefarious designs of the militants," the document reads. "Extra vigil needs to be maintained from 11 p.m to 6 a.m," the input further read.