A countdown to the Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023: How things are shaping up

In a year from now Karnataka will be in the midst of a tough election campaign to elect the member of the Legislative Assembly. The political strategies and preparations for these elections are clearly visible in all the major political parties. It may be useful to contextualize the coming elections in Karnataka.

For close to four decades (since 1985), the Karnataka voter has never given a clear majority to the ruling party in a state assembly elections. Some may want to contest this claim by pointing out to the results in the 2004 and 2018 elections. In 2004, the Congress - JD(S) formed a coalition government. The Congress (which was in power from 1999-2004), lost its majority and did not even emerge as the single largest party but found its way back to power on account of a post election alliance with the JDS. A similar situation emerged in 2018. The BJP was the single largest party pushing the Congress (which was in power from 2013-18) to the second place. The BJP government resigned as it did not have a majority and the Congress and JDS came together to form a coalition government. The fact that in the current Assembly, a large number of MLAs resigned their seats and won a by-election on a different party ticket explains the complexity of party affiliation of elected representatives in the present House. Would 2023 see the revolving door policy of turnover of ruling parties continue? Or would that trend be reversed, will be a key point of intense political speculation!

Who are the major players as we approach this election? The BJP and the Congress are clearly the key rivals with the Janata Dal (S) being a distant third player. Aftertastingsuccess in Delhi and Punjab, a fourth player - the Aam Aadmi Party, is seeking to register its electoral presence in Karnataka. It may be useful to look at the strategies of each of these key political players.

First, the BJP. As the ruling party it would go to the voters seeking an endorsement for another term in office. In Karnataka, the BJP has been adept at challenging the Congress and has had limited success in defending its track-record. It is going into the campaign with a Chief Minister who took over less than a year ago. The shadow of the former Chief Minister, B S Yediyurappa is all too visible. When laying down office, Yediyurappa had insisted that his political mission was to get the BJP back to power with a clear majority in 2023.

The current Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is still to firmly establish both his political presence and visible control over the party and government. A ruling party often secures the electoral mandate on the basis of voters perception of the good work done by the government. The recent example of the results in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur are a case in point. Alternatively (like in Uttarakhand and Goa), the unhappiness with the state government could well be offset by the positive image of the central government, when the same party is in power at both levels. Will the BJP choose the first route (perception of good work of the state government) or the second (rely on the perception of the voter on the performance of the central government) would be interesting to watch. If it is the first, then one would look for visible delivery of services on the ground in the coming months. Would the party strategists want to shift the agenda away from governance and development to issues of caste and religious polarisation would be another strategy to look out for.

For the Congress party it is a battle for survival and arresting a down-slide that appears to be evident especially after the recent assembly elections in five states. Karnataka would be key to any effort towards its revival. This revival has three key elements. Firstly, how effectively is it able to set the agenda for the elections? Till now, the party at the state level, has been in reaction mode rather than seeking to drive the debate. As the leading opposition, can it focus attention on the performance of the ruling party? Secondly, can it sustain the unity shown by its leadership at the state level. This unity needs to percolate across the party. This also would entail the party having a united strategy on key issues and speaking in one voice on the same. Thirdly, will the drift and uncertainty at the national level in the party be quickly resolved leading to a more focused and decisive leadership? This is crucial to the party launching a spirited campaign against the ruling party.

The Janata Dal (S) seems to be unsure of its strategy. It is fact losing leaders to both the Congress and the BJP (and could soon see a march towards the AAP). Its best hope is to see the election of an assembly with no clear majority for any party. This would allow them to play the role of a king-maker. Yet, one has seen in the past that this requires a reasonable large number of members elected to the House and checking any floor-crossing. Further, this strategy assumes the voter in Karnataka not giving a clear mandate to any one party.

Coming now to the fourth player emerging on the political horizon - the Aam Admi Party. Buoyed by its success in Punjab, the party is hoping to capitalize on the same in Karnataka. It is testing the waters in the BBMP polls. Its leaders have claimed that in a survey their party was the second choice in the city behind the BJP. One must underscore the fact that the AAP victory in Punjab was the result of painstaking work at the ground level for eight years. The first four Lok Sabha members for AAP were from Punjab in 2014. They made a splash in the 2017 State assembly polls in Punjab prior to the spectacular victory earlier this year. Is there a similar traction in Karnataka? Can they hope to win by merely piggybacking on the Punjab (and Delhi) electoral successes? While they do have some leaders at the state level with a record of engagement in civic activity, would it be enough to make them a key player in the politics of the state? Much would also depend on how the AAP performs in both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, states which go to the polls before Karnataka. The AAP is making a concerted attempt to register its presence in these states.

The next one year will see the play of all the above factors. A fascinating time for Karnataka Politics. One just hopes that the debate in Karnataka revolves around issues of critical concern for the people of the state.

(Dr. Sandeep Shastri is a keen student of Indian politics. Dr Shastri is a researcher on politics for the last four decades)

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