6th Anniversary Of Balakot Air Strike: A Look At Pakistan F-16s & How US Is Monitoring It

As India marks six years since its Balakot air strike on 26 February 2019, the memory of India's MiG-21 shooting down Pakistan Air Force's F-16 has resurfaced.

The face of then Wing Commander Abhinandan is synonymous to that incident- the first time ever that a MiG-21 jet took down an F-16.

Back in 2019, Pakistan had initially vehemently denied than any F-16s were used when PAF jets were scrambled a day after the Balakot strike. Apart from hiding the obviously embarrassing fact that their "high-tech" fighter jet had been shot down by India, the reason Islamabad tried so hard to conceal this was that the PAF is not allowed to use the US-supplied F-16s in situations like the one created on the day after the Balakot airstrike!

While the US insists that strict monitoring mechanisms are in place, India is sceptical. After all, if Pakistan can violate the end-use agreement- which limits the usage of these advanced jets to counter-terrorism roles- once, what's going to stop it from doing the same again?

That fact has come all the more into focus given the recent $397 million funding approved by US President Donald Trump for Pakistan's F-16 fighter jet fleet.

It has reignited a familiar debate: Can Pakistan be trusted to use these jets solely for counter-terrorism?

A History of Concern

The Balakot strike was India's response to the Pulwama terror attack, which killed 40 Indian Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel.

The morning following the airstrike, the PAF used of US-supplied F-16s in a retaliatory dogfight. Although the US refrained from commenting publicly at the time, it later emerged that Washington privately reprimanded Pakistan for its handling of the fleet.

In August 2019, Andrea Thompson, then Undersecretary of State for Arms Control, sent an official letter to PAF Chief Mujahid Anwar Khan. The letter highlighted Pakistan's unauthorised relocation of F-16s and American-made missiles to unapproved forward operating bases, moves described as "concerning and inconsistent" with the F-16 Letter of Offer and Acceptance.

Thompson warned that these actions posed risks of exposing sensitive US technologies to third-party access, potentially compromising shared security platforms. The letter also noted that American access to certain bases had been restricted, with no assessment of security vulnerabilities conducted for four years.

Although it did not directly mention the February 2019 incident, it was widely understood as a response to Pakistan's deployment of F-16s over Kashmir during the India-Pakistan aerial engagement.

The Latest Funding: Same Jets, New Promises

The $397 million package, building on a $450 million deal in 2022, aims to "sustain" Pakistan's F-16 fleet, which the US maintains support counter-terrorism operations. However, given Pakistan's previous deployment against India and the delayed nature of the US response in 2019, New Delhi has reason to question whether the monitoring framework can prevent history from repeating itself.

In fact, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, in a 2022 meeting in Washington, had strongly remarked, "You're not fooling anybody by saying these things." He was referring to the US decision to provide Pakistan with a $450 million package for what the Pentagon described as the "F-16 case for sustainment and related equipment."

Indian Air Force officers who participated in Balakot airstrike, fly 3 Mirage 2000 aircraft & 2 Su-30MKI fighter aircraft in ‘Avenger formation’, at Hindon Air Base during the event on #AirForceDay today.
Credits- @ANI@VinodDX9 @I30mki @vgmenon99 pic.twitter.com/s0NLhBy54f

— Saptak Mondal (@saptak__mondal) October 8, 2019

Monitoring Mechanisms: Are They Enough?

The oversight is expected to be more robust this time. Reports indicate that a Technical Security Team (TST)-a 24/7 surveillance unit comprising US Air Force personnel and contractors-will be stationed in Pakistan to ensure compliance.

Pakistani personnel will have limited access to F-16 bases, which will be separated from other aircraft like the JF-17. All F-16 flights outside Pakistan or any joint operations will require US government approval, while AMRAAM missiles will be stored only at designated bases. The aircraft themselves will be stationed exclusively at Shahbaz (Jacobabad) and Mushaf (Sargodha) airbases.

Despite these measures, some experts argue that real-time enforcement during high-tension situations remains uncertain. Monitoring is only effective when both partners have aligned strategic interests. In volatile regions like South Asia, operational misuse can still occur.

Lessons from the Past

The US relies on programmes like Blue Lantern and Golden Sentry for end-use monitoring. While globally successful in preventing unauthorised transfers, these systems have rarely been tested during live military crises such as the India-Pakistan standoff. India's concerns are rooted in experience; despite assurances, past monitoring failed to prevent misuse. Although the US eventually reprimanded Pakistan, that response's private and delayed nature raised doubts about Washington's commitment to immediate enforcement.

Strategic Calculations and Future Risks

The question remains: Can the US guarantee compliance when tensions rise?

While Indo-US relations continue to deepen through partnerships like the Quad, New Delhi's trust will be tested if Pakistan uses these jets beyond the agreed parameters. As South Asia's security dynamics evolve, the US must ensure its monitoring mechanisms are credible and enforceable. In the delicate balance of strategic alliances, credibility matters more than ever.

The F-16s may be intended for counter-terrorism, but history has shown that intentions do not always match actions. Only time will tell if Washington's oversight can stand the test when it matters most.