2024 Lok Sabha Elections: What Makes Exit Poll Results Reliable?

Today, 1 June, is the Seventh Phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2024. The voting will take place for 57 different constituencies across seven states and one union territory, those being Bihar, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The voting began at 7:00 AM in the morning, and will continue till 6:00 PM

Exit polls will also be conducted during this phase of voting, and the results of these exit polls, as well as many other opinion polls, will be released today after 6:30 PM. The Election Commission of India restricted the posting of any exit poll results between the very start of the first phase of voting on 19 April, till half-an-hour after the last phase of voting on 1 June.

This restriction is given to survey companies and news agencies in accordance with Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.

There are so many restrictions on showing the results of exit polls by agencies because they are one of the most accurate ways of predicting the outcome of the elections. They are conducted through online or in-person surveys right after a person who has voted exits the polls.

Their accuracy is not always perfect, as they have a tendency to underestimate the number of seats acquired by the winning party., such as the exit polls conducted in 2014 and 2019 underestimating the number of seats NDA would win in both years. They are also conducted by private news agencies instead of government institutions, which means they face less accountability for inaccuracy than a public agency.

Still, their validity is better than most other opinion polls, which may include the opinions of people who haven't voted, or others who may want to spread misinformation. Those who may want to view these exit polls can watch any T.V. channel or news source online that they prefer, as most news companies will be publicising their results on any platform that they can.