OPINION: Will White House Checkmate China?

US President Joe Biden has been so furious with Russian President Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine that he has branded the latter a "killer". But the same Biden has not uttered a single word to condemn a much bigger army build-up -- by China alongside the Indian Himalayas.

The other day, while in Singapore to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue, United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin sought a meeting with Chinese Defence Minister General Li Shangfu. Beijing snubbed him. Will this snub strain US-China relations?

Knowledgeable sources say Beijing seems to argue that there was nothing unusual about its refusal to meet Secretary Austin. General Li became Chinese Defence Minister in March this year. Prior to that, the US had imposed sanctions on him for his alleged involvement in the Chinese procurement of the Russian advanced fighter jets and missile defence systems. Washington ought to have lifted those sanctions before it asked for a conversation with him in Singapore.

Washington is highly unlikely to buy any such argument. It seems to assess Beijing's denial to Secretary Austin has been related to its well-established pattern of behaviour -- that is, to advance its military prowess secretly and not interact with any US (or other foreign) officials who might expose the nature of communist China's functioning on this front.

Washington is aware that China's military has advanced from a peasant-based infantry army in 1979 to a world-class military. Today, China's navy is the world's largest by raw numbers. Beijing is planning a fourfold increase in nuclear warheads to 1,500 by 2035. It is constructing hundreds of new silos capable of launching long-range ballistic missiles, potentially targeting the US and its far-flung nuclear forces.

The Pentagon is of the assessment that China remains the USA's "No. 1 long-term geostrategic security challenge." China's actions are moving it down the path toward confrontation and potential conflict first with its neighbours and then with the United States. China has also forged close ties with governments in Africa, Latin America, and Central and Southeast Asia.

As such there is a near consensus across the US strategic spectrum to checkmate China militarily. Secretary Austin has been aware of "an alarming increase in the number of unsafe aerial intercepts and confrontations at sea by PLA aircraft and vessels" in the East China and the South China Seas. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley has ordered his staff to gather information about every interaction between the US military and its Chinese counterpart in the South China Sea and beyond.

Today, the US military's focus is on modernization and readiness. It is having a network of partners and allies for integrated deterrence. The US carries out Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea from time to time. The FONOPs began during the Barack H. Obama administration. They increased during the the Donald J. Trump administration.

Washington is also strengthening its alliances across the Asia-Pacific region, sending additional forces and firepower to places like Guam and the Philippines, and reinforcing military ties with Australia, Japan and South Korea.

Pertinently, the US Defence budget for the fiscal year 2024 is $880 billion. This aims to support modernization efforts, such as fielding new fighters and bombers, recapitalizing the ballistic submarine fleet, building long-range fires and strike capabilities and improving resilience of space capabilities. The budget aims to counter China's military expansion in the Pacific region.

The US maintains a strong lead in aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered submarines, and larger ships. It has a more than 10 to 1 advantage over China in the number of nuclear warheads and the weapons to deliver them.

It would, however, be very hard to say how determined the current presidency in the United States is to checkmate communist China. The sources say the White House's 'Indo-Pacific Technique' document (February 11, 2022) shifted the Quad towards from "world well being safety" to "driving supply-chain cooperation, joint expertise deployments and advancing widespread expertise ideas." The Indo-Pacific technique paper stated, "Our goal is to not change the PRC [People's Republic of China] but to form the strategic atmosphere wherein it operates..."

The White House does not take cognisance of the threat China poses to India. It has so far not branded China's actions against India since 2020 as "aggression." The White House is very critical of Russia's strikes in Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has been so furious with Russian President Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine that he has branded the latter a "killer". But the same Biden has not uttered a single word to condemn a much bigger army build-up -- by China alongside the Indian Himalayas.

(Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. He is also Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, New York)

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