Why Bihar elections will be Lalu's comeback?

RJ(D) leader Lalu Prasad Yadav's exile may come to an end for good after the Bihar legislative elections. True that both Nitish Kumar and Lalu are sailing the same boat, but the undercurrent is hidden.

Fighting the elections together under the JanataPariwar banner under the leadership of Nitish Kumar will be tad difficult. Other parties that will contest with a war footing from their grounds would be Congress, NCP and also possibly TMC.

The agenda this year

With a complex social matrix, residents of the state are more willing to caste their votes on that basis. While development is a far cry for many of them, none of them seem to be that bothered unless the social hierarchy is affected.

[Read: BJP in caste balancing act ahead of Bihar assembly elections]

Hence, Land Acquisition Bill, ‘GharWapsi" , or any other reforms for that matter are not going to be the focus of the elections this time.

After Manjhi, Nitish should brace himself for another shocker

Nitish and Lalu seem to be nothing less than Siamese twins these days. Once arch rivals, the duo have managed to hide their grudges very well till now. However, political experts believe that Lalu has got a platform after an elongated exile and he will not lose this opportunity, especially after Nitish's debacle last year in the LS polls that has left him de-stabilised for good. Moreover, the Manjhi attack was unwelcome and unforeseen. Hence, Nitish may still require some time to get back his footing in politics.

Lalu may strike hard at this time, if he has to. For the time being the two leaders have one goal-countering the 'communal BJP' with their 'social justice' plank.

Manjhi will cost Nitish a lot

With Manjhi out, Nitish's JanPariwar is lying on three stands. Dalits, who form 31% of the voter's list have rolled out their support with the rolling out of Manjhi. So, Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi is what Nitish banks upon now.

Is Lalu trustworthy?

He is shrewd, no dount about that. So, even if the 'Parivar' stays afloat, power sharing between Lalu and Nitish would be difficult.

Moreover, the fact that majority of the Bihar population think that Nitish Kumar is responsible for the curresnt mess in Bihar politics will act as a catalyst to Nitish's debacle.

[Read: Bihar assembly elections 2015: Will foes turned friends be able to corner BJP?]

Then comes the stark reality. The Nitish Bandwagon JD(U) comprises Koeris (5%) + Kurmis (4%) + Muslims (15%) and Lalu's RJD comprises 14% Yadavs. Needless to say, the Yadavs and the Kurmis cannot stand each other. So, holding the two together will be difficult.

The outcome could well be left to the imagination of the readers.