OPINION: Pakistan Elections May Turn Out To Be A Farce

Elections have lost the relevance in Pakistan because its army has reduced the political system to naught. ​H​owever, the political parties and the people of Pakistan are anxiously waiting for outcome of elections which are now due. It is widely believed that the results of the forthcoming national elections have already been decided by the Pakistan army.

Pakistan is in a whirlpool of economic, political, governance and institutional crises. The political system has become divisive and intolerant and the trust deficit between people and state institutions has reached new low. Pakistan needs a leader who could take tough economic decisions to lessen the burden of inflation, poverty, and joblessness left behind by the successive governments.

In this scenario public's focus is again on former PM Imran Khan (presently in jail) and he should be the next prime minister if free and fair elections take place. The opinion polls revealed that 70 to 80 percent of the voters want him to be the next prime minister. But does it matter? Of course not. It is a common belief in Pakistan that the Army Chief or the US Ambassador in Islamabad could best predict the outcome of the forthcoming elections. Their writ and power transcend the boundaries of any constitutional requirements. The Chief Justice of Pakistan was left helpless by the spunky defiance of the military to ignore his orders to hold the general elections.

However, the country's current political and economic conditions are incredibly complex. The grinding poverty, unemployment, inflation, and political turmoil can swirl into a unstable theatre, threatening the country's existence.

Therefore, it is interesting to peep into the army's mind and its objectives to achieve from the impending elections. The Pakistan military seems to be bracing for a lame duck and weak prime minister. The Army always had a very stormy relationship with the powerful prime ministers. Whether it was Zulfqar Ali Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, or recently Imran Khan, all these politicians finally got into power tussle with the army.

Now, the deck is all loaded and locked against Imran Khan, but it doesn't mean the chances for Nawaz Sharif or Bilalwal Bhutto Zardari are blazing bright in their favour. It is highly doubtful whether or not Nawaz Sharif will even find a way back into active politics in Pakistan.

On Aug 25, after meeting his brother in London, Shehbaz Sharif said that after consultations with the party's senior leadership, it had been decided that Nawaz Sharif "will return to Pakistan in October". But Pakistan People's Party PPP leader Syed Khursheed Shah​ said that he did not see PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif returning to Pakistan in October. The PML-N leadership fears that Nawaz may be incarcerated upon return, as he has been declared an absconder by the courts, and his appeals are still pending.

However, the current army chief Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah has made specific commitments. Nevertheless, politics is very unpredictable, especially in a country like Pakistan. Keeping Nawaz Sharif out of Pakistan's politics must not be a big deal, at least in the current political climate. Undoubtedly, his brother Shahbaz Sharif has eliminated many red flags to his return, but the army can always pull out a trick under their hat to scare him away.

Additionally, Zardari wouldn't feel comfortable allowing Nawaz Sharif to take the seat of power in Pakistan. In this scheme​, the interests of Zardari and the army are converging. The same game would be on the rails against Bilawal Bhutto, too, because Nawaz Sharif would like to see his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, as the next prime minister before Bilawal.

If the political cards are spread in this order, the army would easily kick the can down the road and bring about a third player depending solely on the army's blessings. Here is a catch-22 for the Pakistan Army to carefully calibrate a third force other than Muslim League N and PPP and accordingly shell out the parliament seats in such a manner so that no single party gets majority.

In this connection, army is taking a shot at splitting the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf Party ( PTI). But the gas lighting of Shah Mehmood Qureshi toward this end doesn't seem to work. Although Qureshi had brought it up with Imran Khan, he struck it down as no starter with the Army. It is believed after that conversation, Qureshi fell out of favor with Imran Khan.

Even if the Pakistan army succeeds by laying back on its old tricks of dividing and ruling, the fundamental problem of Pakistan would still exist. From a political perspective, the military ​c​an not fully appreciate the gravity of the situation. They mistakenly assume that Imran Khan could create problems against them. In comparison, the problem is more complicated and deep-rooted. It needs a more sophisticated approach to address the menace of corruption, exploitation, and wonton social barbarity. People seek to dissolve worn-out economic, cultural, social, and political systems.

The country's current challenges are entirely different from those of the past. The Pak Army is failing to grasp and grapple with the effects of social media platforms. The current generation has unlimited access to the world's information. Information technology has transformed the ways of politics. It has encouraged people to debate and demand a better quality of life. The old overdrawn rhetoric is off the tables.

This time, with these new emerging challenges and realities, the Pakistan military is getting ready for deep trouble before and after the elections. It appears that displaying a new political charade would amount to carrying coals to the new castle. If the Pak Army is under any notion that after the elections, they will run into a quality time then they are living in fool's paradise. For sure, this time, no Arab or Western country seems to be prepared to come to their clutches.

(R C Ganjoo is a senior journalist and columnist having more than 30 years experience of covering issues concerning national security, particularly Kashmir. He has worked with several prominent media groups and his articles have been published in many national and international publications.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.