Pak PM Shahbaz Sharif comes out as a babe in politics as he dares talk peace with India

What is now only to be settled is when does Pakistan finally exit from POK, Gilgit and Baltistan

It is strange that Sharif should talk of peace and friendly relations with India, knowing fully well that similar noises made by Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan had proved a non-starter. Being a veteran politician, chief minister of Punjab for years and now prime minister, he should have realized that politicians in Pakistan have no role in taking decision on improving relations with India, whatever may be their intent or compulsions. It is Army and the establishment that call the shot. Hostility with India justifies Army's need for having defence forces of the existing size and establishment's visceral hatred for Delhi. It also helps people ignore their loot of national resources for being sole protector of Pakistan's security. Sharif obviously overestimated their dependence on him to take the country out of its current hopeless economic situation or maybe, he was just kite flying to test how far he would be allowed to stretch the Laxman Rekha on mending fences with Delhi.

Sharif was clever when he used an interview to an Arab news channel (Al Arabia) to send a message to PM Modi to 'sit across the table for serious and sincere talks' to resolve all issues including Kashmir peacefully and assured him of his 'sincerity'. His grandstanding was seemingly in response to a nudge from Arab countries particularly UAE where he had gone to beg for funds to rescue Pakistan from an impending economic disaster. Had he given the interview to Pakistani journalists, he would have been lynched with inconvenient questions, precipitating his eventual fall from grace.

He was on dot when he said that the three wars Pakistan had fought had been a 'waste of time and resources' and brought only misery, poverty and unemployment to his people. His assertion that survival of both countries being 'nuclear- powered and armed to the teeth', would be in danger if they do not engage in constructive dialogues was also hypothetically correct. But he erred grievously when he referred to Kashmir as 'one of the burning issues.' The establishment wasted no time in chastening him and shaking him off his day dreaming. His own office and his home minister Rana Sanaullah hurriedly clarified that dialogue with India was possible only if Delhi reverses its 'illegal action of August 5, 2019' on J&K, before even thinking of starting any negotiations.

Surely, Army, foreign office and prime minister Sharif are not so naïve as not to understand that J&K's earlier status shall never be restored. What is now only to be settled is when does Pakistan finally exit from POK, Gilgit and Baltistan. A leading POK activist Dr Amjad Ayub Mirza who had earlier celebrated abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, has observed that it is time India prepare the second Instrument of Succession for Pakistan Army to sign to prevent bloodbath in the occupied areas. He insists that the sensible thing for Pak Army and its proxies like Shahbaz Sharif will be to let POK people, being legitimate Indian citizens, join India to escape from starvation and has appealed to the Indian Army to rescue his people from the 'two prisons,' known as POK and Gilgit Baltistan. Ayub Mirza's fond wishes apart, it's unlikely that any such thing is going to happen in the near future. Neither Pakistan Army is stressed enough to hand over POK on a platter nor India will be interested in taking over a liability by committing its defence resources at this juncture. 2023 and '24 are election years in India and the government cannot afford to even think of appearing eager to talk, given Pakistan's history of betrayal for organising Pulwama, Uri and Kargil terror attacks just when relations were to kickstart.

So, it is back to square one. Sharif remains a prisoner of his establishment and Army, people in Pakistan continue to suffer unprecedented economic hardships and India carries on with strengthening its political, diplomatic, economic and military power while remaining vigilant against internal and external saboteurs and aggressors.

(Amar Bhushan worked with the Research and Analysis Wing for 24 years after briefly serving in the BSF intelligence, State Special Branch and Intelligence Bureau. He served as the Special Secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat before he retired in 2005.)

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