OPINION: Pak is balancing between US, China

Unexpectedly, Pakistan experienced a nationwide uprising against civil and military rulers spontaneously after the arrest of former Prime Minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan.

In the present political and financial chaos scenario, Pakistan's unending tensions between Khan and the civil-military leadership, now has its implications for international relationships as well. As the situation continues to unfold, the international community is closely watching how these developments could shape Pakistan's political future and its relationships with key partners like China, the United States and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Pakistan is trapped between two fires. On one side, Pakistan's age-old ally China is worried about his huge investment in trade and business while on the other hand, US assurance for financial and military support as and when required. An expert noted that Khan was firm on reducing Islamabad's dependence on the US and charting a "third path", which involved maintaining cordial ties with the US, its "all-weather ally" China as well as Russia.

But today, Pakistan's loyalty is at stake as it has to prove on which side it stands when US and China are sworn enemies of each other. After conducting the Afghanistan venture, US' all-powerful military apparatus the 'Pentagon' has skillfully controlled Pakistan, particularly its Army. US succeeded in its mission to keep Pak Army a divided house to control Pakistan politically and militarily indirectly.

Pakistan watchers are of the opinion that a deal between the Army and Imran Khan is likely to take place with compromise on corruption tirades against the ruling government, withdrawal of cases against him unconditionally. In this process, the Pentagon has been playing a pivotal role invisibly. US cannot afford to marginalise Pak Army completely because to utilise its services for particular long drawn missions after withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Imran Khan's second rung leadership has the blessing of the Army. US could use Pakistan also for 'Encirclement of Russia'. Vladimir Sotnikov, Director of Russia-East-West Center for Strategic Studies and Analysis, has said that Pakistan has always been a "sweet spot" for Americans, as he noted the formal alliance between the two countries during the Cold War.

Indication to uphold the relationship with the Army was dropped by Imran Khan while talking to the foreign media at the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on May 13, 2023. Imran Khan said that he has never given negative statements against Army Chief General Asim Munir. He vowed to maintain good relations with the Army Chief if he comes back to power. He further said that he had warned the government not to lead the country towards 'anarchy'. "I kept warning that if Pakistan becomes Sri Lanka, it will go out of everyone's hands," he added.

China is considered an all-weather friend of Pakistan. China is with the Pakistan Army. On top of that, the closeness of the Pak Army Chief with China was noticed when Gen. Asim Munir, during his visit to China, met Wang Yi, Politburo member of the Communist Party and Director of Foreign Affairs at the Central Commission of the Party. Wang Yi said that the Pakistani Army was the real protector of maintaining national security and stability. It was clear from his statement that the Pakistani government does not matter to China but its Army. Irrespective of the party in power in Pakistan, the reins often remain in the hands of the Army and China likes this.

According to reports, China was not very happy about working with the Imran Khan government. An example of this is that exactly 2 months after Imran Khan resigned from the post (10th April 2022), China gave a loan of $2.3 billion (Rs 18,000 crore) to Pakistan at a cheap interest rate (on 10th June 2022).

In June last year, a conversation between the Pakistani ambassador in Beijing and the Chinese Foreign Ministry was leaked. In this leaked conversation, the Chinese leadership wanted to work with Shahbaz Sharif instead of Imran. When Shahbaz Sharif was the Chief Minister of Punjab province, he supported China a lot. Not only this, Imran Khan was coming in the middle of implementing China's ambitious project China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). These projects were launched in 2015 during the Nawaz Sharif government.

Since coming to power, Imran Khan was not happy with the CPEC project. He believed that transparency is not being maintained in these projects and there was a possibility of corruption, which was not in the interest of Pakistan. In September 2018, Imran Khan's former advisor Abdul Razzaq Dawood shared his concerns on all these matters in an interview.

The Imran's advisor had alleged that the previous government joined hands with China on the CPEC project without doing homework. Tax exemption was given to Chinese companies keeping the rules in check. Imran believed that because of this, Pakistani companies were harmed. However, later he had to give clarification and had to say that there would be no change in the project. Projects worth thousands of cores were stuck.

Till the time Imran Khan resigned as Prime Minister, only 3 projects under CPEC were completed in Gwadar. While more than a dozen projects worth $2 billion (Rs 16,000 crore) were lying incomplete. Today, China is silently wreaking havoc on Pakistan.

Conspicuously, the China-US discussions for two days (May 10-11) on removing obstacles in relations and stabilising the relationship from deterioration. Wang Yi and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had in-depth, substantive and constructive discussions on bilateral ties. The two sides also exchanged views on the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, Ukraine and other international and regional issues of common interest.

In the wake of unrest in Pakistan, State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel of Biden Administration told reporters on May 11, "We continue to monitor the situation in Pakistan closely, and as the US has said before, we don't have a position on one candidate or one political party versus another. What our interest is a safe, secure and prosperous Pakistan. That is in the interest of the US-Pakistan relations, and we call for the respect of democratic principles and the rule of law around the world."

Political analysts, in the backdrop of Pakistan-US-China developments, are also watching India. According to their observations, to defuse the uncontrolled crisis in Pakistan, its Army having the command over 'jihadis' nurtured in madrassas and mosques will be pushed towards India on Kashmir border. Political scientists are also of the view that trained militants with highly high-tech weapons with latest gadgets in large numbers will be penetrating from different sneaking points.

It is pertinent to mention that Beijing, in June last year, put a hold on a joint proposal by India and the US to designate Abdul Rehman Makki, the deputy chief of Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), under the 1267 Sanctions Committee. In January this year, however, Makki, who is also the head of the political affairs wing of LeT/Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and the brother-in-law of LeT chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, was designated a global terrorist by the UN after China lifted its hold on the joint India-US proposal to blacklist him, paving the way for the Security Council's al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee to list him through consensus.

But surprisingly, for the first time, Afghan Taliban-Pakistan and China made a written pledge against terrorism on 10th May. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, "China believes that it would help the Afghan side to gain international recognition if the Afghan side truly delivers on its pledge to fight terrorism." The joint statement was issued at the end of fifth China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers' Dialogue held in Islamabad, to reach and trust for deeper cooperation in political development and security domains.

(R C Ganjoo is a senior journalist and columnist having more than 30 years experience of covering issues concerning national security, particularly Kashmir. He has worked with several prominent media groups and his articles have been published in many national and international publications.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.