The wrong 'J'? Not Jharkhand but Jammu & Kashmir looks uncertain this time
Everybody perhaps had thought that the after-effects of the final set of assembly election of 2014 would be felt more in Jharkhand, the most politically unstable state of the Indian Union. But in reality, it is the other 'J', Jammu and Kashmir, which made the headlines with its political future looking uncertain, thanks to a divided mandate that saw no party getting a majority in the house.
The situation in J&K is nearing a stalemate as none of the parties are prepared to blink first, considering the stake they have in joining hands with the rivals, particularly the BJP.
The purpose of democracy will be defeated if parties fail to find a way out of the puzzle
If
the
state
fails
to
see
a
viable
combination
assuming
the
responsibility
of
governance
soon,
the
very
purpose
of
a
successful
election
in
the
state
where
democracy
has
always
been
up
against
challenges,
will
be
defeated,
strengthening
the
hands
of
the
enemies
of
popular
rule.
Heavy
turnout
was
a
reply
to
separatists
and
terrorists
The
heavy
turnout
(over
70
per
cent)
in
the
five-phase
elections
despite
calls
of
boycott
by
the
separatists
and
terror
strikes,
the
aloofness
of
the
central
and
security
agencies
during
this
year's
election
and
the
failure
of
the
BJP
to
bag
44
seats
by
itself
and
form
a
government
in
the
state
riding
the
Narendra
Modi
wave
---
all
hint
at
a
sense
of
fairness
in
this
year's
election
in
Jammu
and
Kashmir.
J&K
also
needs
a
robust
opposition
besides
a
stable
govt
Now,
it
is
for
the
parties,
none
of
which
are
at
any
advantage
to
dictate
terms,
to
find
a
consensus
route
and
honour
the
popular
mandate
by
forming
a
stable
government.
It
also
becomes
important
that
the
state
gets
a
credible
opposition
that
works
towards
checking
the
government's
action
and
not
(mis)utilise
presudo-separatist
and
communal
sentiments
to
score
a
political
point.
Decline
of
centrist
Congress
and
rise
of
rightist
BJP
have
made
it
difficult
for
parties
like
PDP
and
NC
The decline of the centrist Congress and the rise of the rightist BJP have made it very challenging for both the PDP and NC to opt for an ally to form a government in the state. The Congress is an easier ally for both the party and the past, it played the role of the kingmaker in the state.
But with the BJP which has a pro-Hindu religious identity, it becomes difficult for the regional parties to extend a hand for alliance for in a communally divided state, it can claim a huge cost in the future. For these parties hence, it becomes easier to choose the lesser enemy.
Communal polarisation and AFSPA: Two big challenges for new govt
The new government in Jammu and Kashmir, irrespective of the composition, will have two big challenges before it and they are communal polarisation and the issue of AFSPA.
In terms of communal polarisation, the fact that the PDP and BJP have won almost nothing in Jammu and Kashmir Valley, respectively, in a way reduces their weight as the first and the second party in the latest election. [J&K Govt formation: Mehbooba hints at alliance with BJP, invokes Vajpayee]
BJP in Jammu, NC in Valley: Exclusive spheres of influence
The BJP has won the biggest vote-share for sure but the gain is entirely from the Jammu Division while the PDP's victory in this division has come only from the Muslim-dominated constituencies. The two parties might have their three-year turn for chief ministership but can they really deal with the electoral imbalance? [After meeting BJP leaders, J&K governor meets PDP's Mehbooba Mufti]
The question of AFSPA will also plague the new government, particularly in dealing with the military presence. Former chief minister Omar Abdullah had questioned its applicability in certain areas but it won't be easy for the new regime to realise what Abdullah had sought for given Kashmir's geographic reality, the army's role remains unquestionable.
Can the civilian government extend each Kashmiri the right which is taken for granted by the rest of the country? Is an open government coupled with official accountability practicable in this state?
Jammu and Kashmir looks a much complicated issue to handle at this moment, even more than Jharkhand, thanks to the external, constitutional and communal challenges that come with it, but if seen positively, it could also be the opportunity for the state to establish its case, one which has been best felicitated by democracy.