OPINION: It’s Pakistan versus Pakistan

When I saw TV images of Pakistan's former premier Imran Khan being unceremoniously shoved into an armoured car by Pakistan Rangers, I was reminded of an off the cuff remark by a wag during my visit to the Islamic nation in 2003. He made a profound statement, half in jest, "Countries the world over have armies, but in case of Pakistan, the Army has a country." At that time, General Parvez Musharraf was calling the shots, after dethroning the incumbent Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Imran Khan was arrested from the Islamabad High Court complex in a dramatic operation involving paramilitary personnel on Tuesday last. Scores of Pakistan Rangers in riot gear swarmed into the complex in armoured vehicles shortly after Khan arrived for the hearing of cases against him. He has since been released, following Supreme Court intervention. How long would he be free is anybody's guess.

The coarse way in which a former PM was arrested was shocking to say the least and reflected Pakistan's decadent political culture. One could see armed soldiers dragging Khan by his collar and roughing him up. The paramilitary personnel broke doors, jumped through windows and scuffled with PTI workers to reach Khan.

Khan is a leader of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), who was ousted as PM in April 2022 through a vote of no-confidence. The entire drama was scripted by the Army and executed by its political handles, led by Sharif brothers. He has since acquired a cult status. A vindictive regime, remote-controlled by the Army, has named him in over 140 cases, including the one on profiting from State gifts. Khan is probably the only Pakistan politician in the recent past who has challenged the Army, and undoubtedly enjoys massive public support.

Violent protests against Khan's arrest erupted across Pakistan. In the last two days, his supporters are targeting the Army, literally shaking the gates of the most powerful political force in the country. Vandalising the residences of Corps Commander Lahore and Rawalpindi, setting ablaze military installations and anti-Army sloganeering is unprecedented and unheard of in Pakistan. These are the same people, who, in the past, being sick of corrupt politicians, used to welcome Army takeovers.

In most of the Army establishments, the protesters had a free run. While the agitating mobs vandalised the residence of senior Army officers, torched national memorials and public buildings, surprisingly there was little retaliation from the security forces, except for a strongly-worded warning issued by the Army on Wednesday. It appears, senior Army officers had abandoned their residences, anticipating trouble. Surprisingly, they chose not to confront the arsonists.

There are two possible explanations for the inexplicable army behaviour. One, the Army Generals are divided on how to deal with the present emerging crisis. One section of the Army possibly doesn't want to confront the civilians and has chosen to side-step and allow events to take their natural course. In other words, in this case, they are not following the dictates of the top brass. Or, it's a tactical withdrawal by the Army. May be Army Chief General Asim Munir would crackdown on the 'trouble-makers' and inconvenient politicians, at a time of his choice.

Now that Imran Khan has been set free, will the ongoing mayhem stop? Will his rampaging supporters withdraw from streets and allow restoration of peace in the country? What would be Army's possibly game plan now in the changed circumstances? Given the present power equations in the Islamic nation, Khan may be re-arrested in one or more of the many cases against him. He may be convicted and disqualified from running for office, the way his predecessor Nawaz Sharif was. Khan and the Army were together in that vendetta game. Many would call it classical poetic justice.

There are no saints or sinners in this fratricidal war in Pakistan. Neither side is fighting for any higher values such as democracy, secularism or human rights. It's a struggle for power. The break-up between Khan, now donning a victim mask, and the Army is recent. Till five years back, the two were buddies, partners in crime.

In August 2018, Khan was catapulted to power by the Army through a mix of backroom conspiracies and machinations. While in power, Khan often said that he and the Army were on the same wavelength. Later, the Army felt Khan was growing too big for his boots. His refused to play by the Army's hybrid regime playbook and was voted out in April 2022.

Both Khan and the Army are pandering to the extremist Islamic mindset, which dominates the public psyche in Pakistan. Fed on hate against 'kafirs', bulk of Pakistanis have been upbeat after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They celebrated "believers' victory over infidel America", the most powerful nation of the world. They want the same to be repeated in Pakistan and see in Imran Khan, a leader who can deliver them their dream, a country run strictly on Sharia. Imran Khan mouths what they want to hear.

The Army may not have any ideological problem with such a vision, but knows that it's a pipe-dream given the current global political situation. A Talibanised Pakistan would be friendless and isolated as Afghanistan is in the world. It would be a backward slide for the Islamic nation to Stone Age. Hence, the growing cleavage between the Army and the masses.

What is the takeaway for India in such a disturbing situation in Pakistan? The events at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) foreign ministers' meet in Goa have once again underlined the unfortunate reality that India and Pakistan would continue to be hostile neighbours in foreseeable future.

It's obvious, India will have to live with a belligerent Pakistan-a country cunningly sired by departing willy British to protect their geopolitical interests, with help from bigoted jihadi elements of the Indian sub-continent and rootless communists who wanted to divide the country into 15 parts because of ideological reasons.

Pakistan's hatred for India is inbuilt in the reasons that led its creation in the first place. On the eve of the departure of the British, the Muslims of the sub-continent were an insecure lot. They didn't know how to live in a multi-religious set-up where they were neither rulers nor the ruled. In a democratic India, they would be equals with the rest, a scenario they found difficult to stomach.

Misplaced pride on past-which was more based on imaginary notion of Islamic superiority and false bravado-led a section of pre-independent India Muslims to aggressively agitate for a separate Islamic nation. Contempt and hate for pre-Islamic past is the glue that sustains this divisive mindset, which dominates Pakistan today.

What's Pakistan's future? There are no easy choices for the country. If Army continues with an unpopular Shahbaz regime, it would have to suffer public ire, which is reeling under ultra-high inflation and shortages of essential commodities. Will the Sharif duo-Army combine allow a defiant Imran Khan to be free to mobilise masses against the establishment or incarcerate him again on some pretext? Will Army Chief Munir directly step in and take control, putting an end to the facade of civilian rule and re-establish the Army's pre-eminent position in Pakistani society?

There can't be definite answers to these questions at the moment. But another military takeover looks unlikely, since it is fraught with many risks. Pakistan's salience in international politics has rapidly declined in the recent past in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Without the pretence of democracy, a Pakistan directly under Generals would be a pariah, particularly in the Western world and be shut out from IMF bailouts, its dysfunctional economy needs desperately. Forex reserves are declining, prices of essentials are hitting the roof and the country is beset by massive civil unrest. There is hardly any leeway for the Generals to manipulate the wobbling system. It's safer for them to continue to remote-control the country. Pakistan's present is dark while the future is equally uncertain.

The volatile situation in Pakistan is an extension of an intra-Islamic war. It's Pakistan, fighting Pakistan. There are no winners in such internecine combats.

(Mr. Balbir Punj is a Former Member of Parliament and a Columnist. He can be reached at: [email protected])

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.