It is advantage BJP as UPA flounders
The
Bharatiya
Janata
Party
has
neither
functioned
as
an
effective
opposition,
nor
has
it
been
able
to
highlight
the
government's
failures.
Even
when
the
2G,
Adarsh
and
CWG
scams
hogged
the
headlines
and
the
heads
of
important
ministers
seemed
to
be
on
the
block,
BJP
could
not
score
decisive
points.
The
party's
top
leaders
did
not
speak
in
one
voice
on
major
issues.
Despite
all
this,
the
findings
of
two
recent
surveys
indicate
that
they
would
fare
rather
well
in
a
midterm
poll.
The ABP News AC Nielsen survey, conducted across 28 cities in April-May 2012, revealed that BJP will get 28 per cent and the Congress only 20 per cent of the total votes if the general elections are conducted now. An overwhelming majority of those who voted for BJP in the last Lok Sabha polls said that they won't switch their allegiance. In contrast, around 12 per cent of the voters who backed the Congress in 2009 are planning to support its main rival if elections are held in the near future.
The latter are mainly upset with the government's failure to control inflation. The common man has borne the brunt of price rise for long and would like the Finance Ministry headed by Pranab Mukherjee to belatedly take some corrective steps. Unfortunately, that has not happened so far. The rupee has been touching new lows of late, yet the Reserve Bank has done precious little to check the currency's free fall.
Captains of industry have rued the Centre's policy paralysis. Confirming their worst fears, the government’s chief economic adviser hinted that the ruling dispensation isn’t likely to pursue any major economic reforms until after the 2014 elections. Since in 2011 West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee forced the government to put on hold the proposed 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail, Kaushik Basu's statement was not surprising.
Worse has been UPA II's political mismanagement. There is no end in sight to the Telangana imbroglio. Maoists are abducting foreign tourists, officials and legislators with impunity. Inter-state disputes flare up every now and then but the government remains a mere spectator as was the case during the Kerala-Tamil Nadu standoff on the Mullaperiyar dam issue.
The Lokpal Bill was not passed by the Rajya Sabha in the Budget Session as promised by the government, it was instead referred to a Joint Select Committee. This gives Anna Hazare who galvanised the youth with the campaign against corruption in 2011 and his new ally Baba Ramdev sufficient ammunition for their proposed agitation in June.
No wonder the CNN-IBN-GFK survey, conducted across eight cities in the first week of May 2012, found that people have become increasingly disenchanted with the UPA government. Nearly 60 per cent of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction over its performance. An equal number observed that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is clearly hampered by coalition compulsions. Seventeen percent of the respondents felt that he is inefficient in handling corruption.
Though both surveys only convey the prevailing mood among the urban population, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi has enough reasons to worry because it was precisely this section that had backed her party to the hilt in 2009. The rural votes are likely to be divided among several parties.
If the middle class votes en masse for BJP, its victory is assured. However, the party's leaders who are busy bickering at present will first have to get their act together for that to happen. They need to put up an united front with their existing allies and also manage to secure new ones. Only a broad-based coalition will be seen by the voters as a credible alternative to the UPA.