Tamil Nadu Poll Predictions: What Happens If Polls Are Held Today? Will Vijay's TVK Win?

The political winds in Tamil Nadu continue to blow in favour of the INDIA bloc, with the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey reaffirming the state's status as one of the strongest bastions of the opposition alliance. What role will Vijay's TVK play if the polls are held today?

If Lok Sabha elections were held in January 2026, the INDIA bloc is projected to sweep 38 of the 39 seats in the state, leaving the NDA with just one, the survey says.

INDIA Bloc's Commanding Position

Tamil Nadu has long been a fortress for regional parties aligned with the INDIA bloc, and the survey suggests that this dominance remains intact. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the bloc had captured 39 out of 39 seats, a clean sweep that underscored its grip on the state's electorate. By August 2025, projections showed a slight dip to 35-36 seats, but the January 2026 survey now places the bloc back at 38 seats, signalling a recovery and consolidation of support.

This consistency highlights the INDIA bloc's ability to translate its vote share into seats effectively, even as the political landscape shows signs of churn.

NDA's Decline

For the NDA, Tamil Nadu remains a difficult terrain. The latest survey projects just one seat, a decline from the 2-3 seats estimated in August 2025. Despite the NDA's national momentum and its expanding footprint in several northern and western states, Tamil Nadu continues to resist its advances.

The survey underscores the challenge for the BJP and its allies: while they may be gaining ground elsewhere, Tamil Nadu's voters remain firmly aligned with the INDIA bloc's regional leadership and narrative.

Rise of "Others"

Perhaps the most intriguing trend in the survey is the steady rise of the "Others" category, which includes emerging players such as Vijay's TVK. Their collective vote share has grown from 12% in 2024 to 15% in August 2025, and now stands at 22% in January 2026.

TVK alone accounts for 15% of this share, suggesting that while the INDIA bloc dominates seat projections, new entrants are beginning to carve out space in Tamil Nadu's political imagination. This rise, however, has not yet translated into seats, reflecting the state's entrenched bipolarity between the INDIA bloc and the NDA.